The urea market has been in decline since the "11th" period. Although it has been rising occasionally, its rising trend is relatively small and its duration is relatively short. The urea price in this Indian bidding reflects the current global urea dilemma: on November 14, Indian urea bidding received a total of 16 bids, with a total bidding volume of 3.15 million tons. On November 15, the lowest bidding price of Indian bidding was west coast port to shore The price is US $248.38 (ton price, the same below), and the CIF price of the east coast port is US $251.37, which is equivalent to RMB 1659 (considering the profits of traders). In the early stage, India advanced the shipping date to the middle of December. Although the specific bidding quantity has not been published, the international news shows that India's urea gap in 2019 is only more than 1.2 million tons. It is estimated that the bidding quantity in India should be It won't be too much. Based on the above data, it's easy to see that at this stage, the buyer's market in the international market is relatively active, and the price is not too friendly to the domestic market. The export enthusiasm of enterprises is reduced. At present, the domestic urea price is also in a downward state. The demand of the industrial market is sporadic procurement, the agricultural market is mainly on the sidelines, and the daily output of 130000 tons of urea is under pressure The power is quite large, the industry holds a certain pessimistic expectation, but according to the later situation, the price of urea will soon bottom.

 The main reason why urea production is different from that in the same period of previous years is that there is no limited supply of natural gas, and the production of some gas head enterprises can still be maintained. However, due to the normalization of environmental protection, the peak shifting and limited production area of some coal head enterprises this year is larger than that of last year, while the production of gas head is not limited, but the price of natural gas has been raised. Under the influence of the maximum increase of no more than 20%, southwest, West Most of the gas head enterprises in North and Inner Mongolia plan to limit or suspend production after the middle and late November, and the resumption plan is set after February next year. Therefore, after the middle and late November, the domestic urea production will have a significant decline sign, and it is expected to continue to February to March next year, and the supply pressure will be relieved to some extent.

Secondly, the demand of winter storage market will start. In recent years, there is still a hard demand in some industrial markets. Some large factories in Shandong and other places have tentatively raised their prices. The agricultural market is mainly on the lookout, and the overall purchase volume is relatively small. However, the domestic cultivation area has not been adjusted much, and the overall apparent demand is relatively stable. In other words, the demand still exists, but it is relatively lagging behind. The conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer has been held, and it is expected to be held in the next week The sales policy of winter storage of compound fertilizer will be announced. Then, the market of winter storage will be started gradually, the demand will be improved, and the price of urea will also rise tentatively.