Recently, heavy snow fell in Northeast China. The sudden snowfall brought people into winter. At the end of the conference, most of the market news in the early days predicted that after the conference, winter storage in all regions would speed up the pace of advance and enter the "normal". From the perspective of market atmosphere, the conference of phosphorus and compound fertilizer does have a certain role of foil. As an important node of the winter storage market every year, the end of the conference of phosphorus and compound fertilizer usually indicates the real beginning of the winter storage market.

At the beginning of the week, the compound fertilizer market is in a recovery state, and the improvement after the meeting is not obvious. Even some areas are still not optimistic about the future market, and the stalemate voice accounts for the "peak". In Northeast China, for example, the atmosphere of winter storage is like the weather, dead. The start-up time of winter storage in Northeast China is earlier than that of previous years, but the progress is far behind that of previous years. Both enterprises and dealers hold the attitude of "waiting again". In the absence of a clear direction at the phosphorus and compound fertilizer conference, what is winter storage waiting for in Northeast China?

First, wait for the price. At the beginning of winter storage market, only a small number of compound fertilizer enterprises in Northeast China introduced the buyout price for a short time, and there was no clear offer after the completion of the periodic advance collection. The overall interest policy was the main one, and the minimum guarantee was few. As we all know, since the second half of this year, the price of chemical fertilizer has declined in an all-round way, and so far, the decline of individual fertilizer species has exceeded expectations, and the cost support of compound fertilizer has also been greatly reduced; the second reason is that the price of explosive products is frequently low, the enterprise's pricing is too high, which affects the sales share, and the enterprise's pricing is too low , the profit space is too narrow, so we have to bid cautiously.

Second, wait for the policy. The price of winter storage is not clear, and the confidence of downstream payment is insufficient. In order to mobilize the enthusiasm, some enterprises have introduced regular advance collection policies such as interest calculation, but the downstream does not buy the account. The so-called "wool comes out of the sheep", the interest policy is ultimately a "slow strategy", the enterprise can neither issue the price in advance, nor give the policy of minimum guarantee, the downstream payment can hardly get any "guarantee", and the natural acceptance degree is relatively low. In recent years, the fertilizer market is changing rapidly. Instead of making money, the downstream dealers often lose money in winter storage. The awareness of winter storage is becoming weaker and weaker. Even some regions simply give up winter storage and choose to purchase with the sales in the sales season, which may be a good way to avoid risks.

Finally, wait for the demand. Too high or too low price of winter storage is not the only reason that hinders the promotion of winter storage market. The poor downstream demand may be the fundamental problem. The lack of demand is not only in the winter storage market, but also in the previous seasons. At present, Northeast China is still a long way away from the fertilizer sales in the preparation season of next spring. The downstream demand is in a "dormant" state. Early storage means that the risk will be greater. In addition, Northeast China has a wide area of single season crops. At present, the autumn grain in most areas has not been sold yet, and the dealers' fund recovery process is difficult, so the payment plan has to be put on hold To some extent, it also restrains the release of demand.

To sum up, I believe that after the conference, most market participants are waiting for the clear trend of the compound fertilizer market. In combination with the upstream and downstream situation of the current stage, it is better to pray for the stable operation of the price of compound fertilizer than to expect the price rise of compound fertilizer. The winter storage market in Northeast China is not the price, but the price stability.