The phosphorus compound fertilizer conference ended in Qingdao last Sunday, and even the personnel in the industry who had been drinking for three days embarked on the journey of return drunk. The diammonium winter storage market is as dead as if there is no "sobering up". According to the experience of previous years, after the phosphate compound fertilizer conference, the winter storage market will also be launched in an all-round way. However, this year, it is not normal. The upstream manufacturer's policy will not go out of the downstream dealer's policy to wait and see. What keeps the market in full swing?

First of all, price policy is more difficult to stabilize. When the winter storage market was just launched, 64% of diammonium arrived in Heilongjiang Province and collected 2550-2650 yuan in advance (ton price, the same below), but now 64% of diammonium arrived in Heilongjiang main stream and collected 2450-2500 yuan in advance, with a decline of more than 100 yuan. After the conference, diammonium enterprises are all in a busy meeting to study how to introduce the winter storage policy. The reason why it is difficult is that the overall market is poor this year, and the price has been declining since the autumn market. If the enterprise pricing is too high and the policy is not good, it will be difficult to collect money and lose the biggest cake of the year. If the pricing is too low, it will limit its profit space 。 This year's fertilizer environment is poor. In order to compete for the winter storage market, the price and policy have changed again and again. In addition, the dealers are far away from the demand for fertilizer in spring and lack of confidence. The progress of payment has naturally slowed down.

Secondly, the price support of raw materials is insufficient and the export is unfavorable. At present, sulfur piles up in the port. According to CFN, the total amount of sulfur in the domestic port is still over 2.2 million tons. At present, the price of granular sulfur in the Yangtze River port is only 490 yuan, which is far from the price of 1200 yuan in the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia also remained low for several consecutive weeks, and the acceptance price in Hubei Province was about 2650 yuan. In Hubei Province, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock pithead is only 350 yuan, about 50 yuan lower than that in the earlier stage. The prices of three kinds of raw materials have declined one after another, and the cost support of diammonium as a downstream product is naturally insufficient. The export market, as an important factor to relieve the domestic supply pressure and support the domestic price in the past years, has also been particularly weak this year. At present, the FOB price of 64% diammonium has dropped to about US $302. According to the current exchange rate, the factory price of enterprises in Hubei Province has been less than 2000 yuan, which does not play a supporting role in the domestic market.

Finally, the demand for winter storage is delayed. After the end of the autumn market, some enterprises quoted prices to the northeast and northwest and other major winter storage areas, but the enthusiasm of the downstream distributors was not high, and the overall delivery was poor. The first reason is that the price of crops is relatively low this year, and apple is unsalable in some areas, so dealers are unable to collect funds for winter storage. The second reason is that the northeast and northwest regions are 4-5 months away from next year's spring ploughing. The earlier the goods are taken, the greater the risk they will bear. In the off-season of these two years, the price rise and fall often occur in the peak season. In order to avoid the risk, the downstream dealers We have to postpone the delivery time.

To sum up, the upstream and downstream of the phosphorus compound fertilizer conference think that the winter storage market of diammonium will usher in a turnaround after the conference, but at present, the market is still in a stalemate state, which is good for scarcity, the downstream demand release is slow, most manufacturers' quotations and policies are pending, and the real start-up of the winter storage market of diammonium still needs to wait for some time.