In the middle and last ten days of November, this year's winter storage market started very slowly: after the phosphorus and compound fertilizer conference, some compound fertilizer enterprises issued slow winter storage policies, and the downstream market demand was poor; the autumn market of diammonium had already ended after the middle of October, and the previous year's collection was the first, but the overall market situation of this year was unsatisfactory, the market acceptance was low, and the price gradually declined The reference price of 64% diammonium in qianbayuquan has dropped to about 2350 yuan (ton price, the same below), and there is still a certain space to talk about according to the size of the order quantity, and there are also some bottom guarantee, interest and other policies. In such a big environment, the urea market is also gloomy: the main urea factory quotation in Shandong Province is 1640-1690 yuan, the low-end transaction price is about 1600 yuan, the main urea factory quotation in Hebei Province is 1630-1670 yuan, the main urea factory quotation in Henan Province is 1650-1670 yuan, the main urea factory quotation in Shanxi Province is 1565 yuan, the large particles are 1550 yuan, the fertilizer environment is relatively poor, and the urea price is relatively low The overall situation shows a certain weak decline, but some insiders believe that although the recent urea price is mainly weak, there are still signs of stabilization, mainly in the following aspects:

First of all, gas head enterprises reduce the supply pressure. Although there is no limited supply of natural gas this year, the gas price will be raised in the later period. From the beginning of this month, some urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Xinjiang and other places began to announce their own plans for production suspension and production restriction. After entering December, according to the rough statistics, the domestic gas enterprises will have less than 40% of the work rate, among which the enterprises in Sichuan will have their own reduction due to the winter external development in Xinjiang and their own reduction For factors such as supply reduction, the willingness to hold up the price is higher than that in the earlier stage, and even individual factories plan to raise the price.

Secondly, the social inventory is at a low level, and the potential demand remains. Because the downstream market is not very optimistic about the urea market from the early stage, the early purchase quantity of urea is not too large, even the inventory quantity of some dealers jointly sold by the Federal Reserve is relatively small, so the overall inventory of the society is temporarily in a low state, even some traders have zero inventory of urea, while the potential demand of the market is still there, and it is expected to be compound fertilizer in early December After the winter storage pricing is clear, the market demand starts to start. Due to the lack of social inventory, the overall price can be stable at least, even if there is no obvious increase.

Finally, most prices are close to cost online and offline, and the possibility of another sharp decline is relatively low. Although the overall price of urea has declined in recent weeks, its range is not too large. For example, in some large factories in Shanxi Province, small particle urea is basically above the level of 1550 yuan, and the limited production of gas head enterprises and the low position under the normalization of environmental protection make the cost rise. In addition, the storage pressure of enterprises is not too large. Simply analyze from the perspective of cost Even if urea declines in the later period, it is difficult to have a large decline.

To sum up, in the near future, the industrial demand for urea is intermittent, and the market demand for compound fertilizer is relatively general. Although the pessimism occupies a relatively dominant low position, from the above aspects, urea only fluctuates in a narrow range, and there is no sign of stability.