Yesterday, the prices of some large urea factories in Shandong, Hebei and Anhui began to increase, and the prices of main urea factories in some regions slightly increased. Now, the prices of main urea factories in Shandong are 1620-1680 yuan (ton price, the same below). The prices of composite fertilizer enterprises in Linyi are 1690-1700 yuan for urea delivery, and 1650-1670 yuan for main urea factories in Hebei, Henan and other regions, though the overall increase is relatively high It is small, and most of the prices of large factories have not been raised, but it is a "good news" for the urea market that has been weak for a long time. However, some people in different industries still keep a certain wait-and-see attitude towards this price increase. After all, the market has been weak for a long time, and whether this price increase can be taken seriously in the industry is doubtful, because the collection situation of downstream urea compound fertilizer enterprises is still relatively same at this stage Generally, the pressure of domestic supply and demand has not changed significantly. The following is a simple analysis on the causes of this price increase, whether the price increase can be real or not and the price trend in the later period.

Causes: first, bidding in Indian market eased the sales pressure of some enterprises. According to the latest bidding data of this round of India, up to now, India's total scalar volume is 1.77 million tons, and the quantity of goods belonging to China is a little higher than 400000 tons. Although the price is relatively low, for the current overall market demand situation, the overall supply pressure at this stage is relatively large. For example, if a single plant wins the bid for a ship of urea, according to the current operating rate, it can also alleviate at least 10 days Second, the market attention is gradually increasing. Although the overall price of urea is hundreds of yuan lower than that of last year, due to the large liquidity and wide application range, the downstream of winter storage market still pays more attention to urea. As the raw material of compound fertilizer, the overall trend of urea also determines the trend of its own cost, such as the enterprise Under the premise that the industry has not yet exported, at this stage, with the increase of market attention, some downstream distributors who are "unable to sit" have begun to take the goods appropriately. The enterprise expects to stimulate the downstream market to take the goods through this price adjustment.

Speculation or no supply pressure, some traders are more concerned about whether the price hike can be solid, and how the price of the remaining enterprises will be adjusted. According to the starting trend of the urea market in the near future and the potential demand in the later period, it is expected that the current urea price will be a relatively low point in the near future, and there will be a bias in the bottom building. However, the possibility of the price continuing to decline again is small. One branch of the industry said that the price increase will be the first step for the urea market to stop the decline and return to the rise.

To sum up, the overall urea market has been weak for a long time, and the market has just sent out a price increase signal. Whether it is speculation or the actual pressure is small, it is a relative good for the current market. However, due to the relatively poor overall market demand in the early stage, some enterprises have a large inventory pressure, and it is expected that even if the urea price is raised in the later stage, the overall increase will not be too large, so if the downstream needs to Demand is not particularly tense premise, do not need to rush to the moment for a large number of procurement.