In the middle of June, the fertilizer market was in an "awkward" stage, with the end of summer demand and the stagnant market in autumn. The upstream and downstream sides stopped to wait and see each other, waiting for the market to become clearer. After the demand for high nitrogen corn fertilizer supplement in summer is over, the voices about the start of autumn market come up one after another, not only for compound fertilizer, but also for water-soluble fertilizer. However, in the intermission stage of summer and autumn market, urea price is reduced or the pot is back again.

The domestic urea market tends to be calm after the "great progress". Recently, the price shows a slow downward trend. In summer, the demand for topdressing season decreases. The start-up plan of maintenance enterprises is gradually implemented, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand appears again. Even though India has recently issued a new round of urea bidding, there is a discrepancy between the domestic urea price and the international market. Can the "attitude" be lowered ”The export to India can't be finalized yet. In addition to urea, the most concerned market in autumn is the phosphate fertilizer market. At present, the prices of Monoammonium and diammonium are firm and upward, and the prices of potassium chloride are close to the bottom. That is to say, the weak urea market has become the "only" negative in autumn, and the water-soluble fertilizer market has a long way to go.

First of all, the space for transaction preference is relaxed. Water soluble fertilizer market is different from other kinds of fertilizer in that there is not too much opening and closing up, which is usually in a stable operation state. In summer, autumn, northwest, North China and other places are in the peak season of fertilizer use, so the price should be strong according to reason. However, in the near future, the preferential space for local transactions has been relaxed, because the cost of raw materials has decreased, and the prices of important production raw materials such as potassium dihydrogen phosphate and potassium nitrate are different The decline of the degree leads to the further decline of production cost; the second reason is the upgrading of market competition. Different brands at the same price level have to use their own preferential policies to mobilize market enthusiasm. Therefore, it is not surprising that the recent relaxation of transaction preferences.

Secondly, the downstream demand space is shrinking. As the most important part of the market segment, downstream demand can be regarded as the best driving force to promote market prospects. The reason why the market performance of compound fertilizer in spring and summer is the most common in the two quarter is mainly due to the weak demand of the downstream. At present, there are some concerns about the demand for water-soluble fertilizer. The reason is that the simultaneous interpreting of fertilizer is similar, and the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is decreasing year after year, though the whole fertilizer is used as a whole. The market remains unchanged, but grass-roots planting enthusiasm is getting lower and lower. The second reason is that as mentioned above, the brand is complex, the supply of local market far exceeds the actual demand, the benign cycle becomes vicious competition, the sales of enterprises are blocked one after another, and the downstream demand space is constantly compressed.

Finally, market sentiment changes frequently. The influence of the overall fertilizer market trend on the single variety market is self-evident. This year's market is more or less special, and the lag of the fertilizer market is obvious. The sales volume of enterprises and dealers in the market has been reduced to different degrees in spring and summer. Now, the expectation in autumn is also relatively sad. First, there is still pressure on the price boost, no matter from the perspective of raw material cost or downstream demand It can play a supporting role in price; secondly, price turbulence is relatively common, which is mainly reflected in the uneven price, the expansion of high-low price gap, especially the price of water-soluble fertilizer, which is more "multifarious", which sets obstacles for the selection in the downstream procurement process.

To sum up, the recent price reduction of urea seems to have brought a negative impact on the next market, and there is a suspicion of backwardness. In fact, according to the market of other raw materials and the development expectation of the supply and demand side, the fertilizer market is also facing many challenges this autumn, so we should be cautious.