With the end of wheat harvest activities in various regions, corn sowing activities are also widely carried out from south to north, and corn seedlings have grown in areas with earlier seasons. During the gap period of summer and autumn, the fertilizer market is relatively in an awkward position, especially the compound fertilizer, which accounts for the largest proportion of fertilizer in autumn, the market trend has become the focus of attention. At present, although most enterprises have the intention of bidding, they have no courage to act, and the market is generally out of the off-season consolidation stage.
The autumn fertilizer price and advance collection policy can not be issued and can not mobilize the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market. Therefore, for the purpose of promoting the market forward, some enterprises plan to hold a dealer meeting at the end of this month, and it is likely to issue the provisional autumn fertilizer price to enhance downstream confidence. As for how the price of wheat fertilizer will start this autumn, most of the voices indicate that it is or will be stable in the downward trend, according to the current influencing factors.

First of all, raw material market. Raw material cost is an important basis for the factory quotation of compound fertilizer enterprises. According to the recent prices of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium raw materials, the pure raw material cost of 45% chlorine based (25-14-6) and 45% chlorine based (18-22-5) compound fertilizer is 1568 yuan / ton and 1538 yuan / ton, respectively, down more than 200 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, which reflects the price trend of Wheat Fertilizer in the future. After a wave of price increases, the urea market is weak again, agricultural demand is over, industrial consumption is reduced, and the new round of urea bidding in India is bad, the price will still be reduced in the future; the price of Monoammonium and diammonium phosphate fertilizer is optimistic, and the transaction price in the main production area has indeed increased. When the autumn peak demand season comes, the price may remain strong in the future; the price of potassium chloride This has reached the bottom relatively, as for when and how much rebound still need to be developed. Second, the actual demand. The main factors for the start-up of the compound fertilizer market in autumn are not only the introduction of prices and policies, but also the release of downstream demand. Even though the mainstream price is clear, if the demand can't turn better, the market will still be stagnant, and the size of demand is also crucial. However, the actual demand for compound fertilizer in this autumn seems to be worrying. First, although the wheat production in some regions is Compared with the same period last year, it has been improved, but the market has not reached an ideal state, and the grass-roots planting enthusiasm is not high in the next quarter; secondly, the recent rainy weather and frequent floods in the South have not only resulted in the reduction of crop production, but also some unsalable conditions, which has many adverse effects on the next agricultural production plan.

Finally, the supply side. Up to now, according to the statistics of zhongfei.com, the overall operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises nationwide is only about 44%, which seems to be relatively low. In fact, it is the normal appearance that the enterprises in the intermittent period are preparing to produce autumn fertilizer. Moreover, at this stage, some enterprises have made preparations for the autumn fertilizer inventory. The date when the autumn fertilizer price is introduced is the time when the enterprises resume production, that is to say, after July In addition, from the perspective of cost and demand, the low price operation of compound fertilizer in autumn accounts for a large proportion, which means that the market will play a good role of "price for volume" again. In order to seize market share, most enterprises will try their best to reduce profit space.

To sum up, the price of compound fertilizer in autumn has been hammered. The trend is determined by raw materials, demand and supply. The price is low, but it is not too pessimistic. It needs to be further clarified at the end of the month.