Since last week, urea has declined. Up to now, the decline range is 70-80 yuan / ton. This week, the market tends to be stable. The quotation in Shanxi is 1530-1550 yuan / ton. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is about 1950 yuan / ton, and the market is relatively stable. Potash fertilizer continued to maintain a weak and stable downward trend, with 60% of port potash prices at 1750-1760 yuan / ton and 62% of Russian potash prices at 1780 yuan / ton. At this stage, it is in the period of the end of summer fertilizer, the downstream demand becomes weak, and the market of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium raw materials will be where to go. In this paper, Dong Haifeng, the head of banglida agricultural materials chain Wuhan Co., Ltd., is invited to make a detailed analysis of this market.

Urea stops falling and stabilizes

Urea was temporarily stable this week after falling for 12 consecutive days. In Shanxi Province, for example, urea began to decline from 1600 yuan / ton, down 70-80 yuan / ton. At present, the price is around 1525-1530 yuan / ton. There is also the possibility that prices will fall again, only at a slower pace. In terms of export, Dong Haifeng believes that foreign prices are low, and 245 US dollars / ton FOB price makes domestic enterprises not dominant. Since 2016, China's urea export volume has also been decreasing, and this year's export volume will not be too large, which is not enough to affect China's domestic market. What really affects the market is to return to domestic demand.

In terms of supply, the daily output reached about 230000 tons before March 2016, and the current daily output is 152000 tons, with a significant decrease in supply. In terms of demand, July, August and September are the production period of wheat fertilizer, and the compound fertilizer manufacturers are ready to start construction after maintenance. Whether urea or ammonium chloride, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer is relatively large. As for the judgment of the future market, Dong Haifeng believes that the current urea production capacity supply and demand balance, the market is stable in the downward direction.
Reverse the trend of phosphate fertilizer

As early as the end of May and the beginning of June, the large-scale compound fertilizer manufacturers and traders have purchased monoammonium phosphate, and the phosphate fertilizer manufacturers are implementing these early orders. At present, 55% of the price of powdered ammonium of large-scale factories in Hubei Province is quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated. The price of traders is about 1785 yuan / ton. Dong Haifeng said: "at the end of May, the phosphate fertilizer is low price. Traders and large-scale manufacturers take the low price goods. Some small enterprises basically take the goods at the beginning of June. Now is the time for manufacturers to execute orders. Even if the price rises, the range will not be too large." Regarding whether there is support for export, Dong Haifeng believes that the export of phosphate fertilizer stimulates the market of granular phosphate fertilizer, while the market demand of domestic granular phosphate fertilizer is still early, and this round of export does not stimulate the price of domestic phosphate fertilizer. As for the future market, he said that the overall phosphate fertilizer is stable and slightly tight, and the production and sales of wheat fertilizer are imminent, so it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of rising.
Weak and stable operation of potash fertilizer

After the K-fertilizer contract, the price of K-fertilizer has been declining, from 1820 yuan / ton last month to 1780 yuan / ton. At present, the market is a game between domestic and imported K. 62% of the potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is priced at 1820 yuan / ton, while 60% of the port price is 1750-1760 yuan / ton, 62% of the Russian potassium price is 1780 yuan / ton, and K + s price is 1750 yuan / ton. Dong Haifeng said that everyone is seizing the market. The imported potassium is around the port and in Guangdong and Guangxi, while the inland is the world of domestic potassium. Potash fertilizer market is in a low period at present. Some enterprises are still digesting the inventory with the price of 2010 yuan / ton last year. In fact, many potash fertilizer enterprises are not so good this year. They lost a lot in operating imported potash fertilizer last year, while domestic enterprises are still introducing incentive policies to stimulate traders to take the goods, and maybe the price will fall later.