Urea futures hit the bottom and rebounded this week. As of Friday, the closing price of ur2009 contract was 1531 yuan / ton, up 1.73% and the weekly highest price was 1532 yuan / ton. During the Dragon Boat Festival, there was demand for topdressing in the regional market, and the rise of spot price led to the rebound of urea price on the first trading day after the festival. After a short period of horizontal trading, due to the continuous maintenance of enterprises, daily urea production did not recover smoothly, and urea futures finally rebounded sharply. The domestic spot market is mainly stable this week, with a slight decrease of 5-10 yuan / ton in Shandong. In terms of national supply, the latest daily output is 143100 tons, which is lower than the market expectation. The daily output decreased by 25000 tons compared with last week, 15900 tons lower than the same period last year. The decline in supply, which began in June, made the national urea production in the second quarter almost the same as that in the same period last year.

Futures trends

This week, urea futures bottomed and rebounded. After another 1500 point failure, urea rebounded to 1530. Downstream demand is still low, leading to the Dragon Boat Festival spot price rise brought by the positive is diluted. After the daily urea production data were released on Wednesday afternoon, the market found that the situation of low daily output had not been alleviated, and the daily output of 143000 tons was significantly lower than that of the same period in previous years. The weekly inventory data also failed to go up because of the decrease in supply. Urea volume increased, short position reduced warehouse leaving. The main producing areas of urea spot to stable, some areas have 5-10 yuan slightly lower. This week, the amplitude of ur2009 contract was 1.99%, the lowest was 1502 yuan / ton, and the cumulative weekly increase was 1.73%Urea supply end

According to the data of the nitrogen fertilizer industry association, the average daily output of urea in China this week was 143100 tons, a decrease of 25000 tons compared with last week's 145600 tons, and 15900 tons less than the same period last year. The operating rate was 68.21%, down 1.21% from 69.42% last week. Among them, the operating rate of coal enterprises was 66.36%, down 2.86% from 69.22% last week, the operating rate of gas enterprises was 73.33%, increased by 3.34% month on month compared with 69.99% last week, the operating rate of small and medium particles was 68.36%, decreased by 0.28% compared with 68.64% of last week, the operating rate of large particles was 50.00%, and decreased by 4.97% compared with 54.97% of last week.
After the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of raw coal rose slightly, the price of steam coal increased by 5 yuan / ton, and the price of liquefied natural gas continued to decrease by 50 yuan / ton. The price of the product side is stable, and the production profit of the enterprise is reduced by 1 yuan / ton by calculation.

The price of synthetic ammonia will be reduced this week by 30 yuan / ton compared with last week. In Linyi area of Shandong Province, the price of urea was reduced by 5 yuan / ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia urea was reduced to 845 yuan / ton, with an increase of 25 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. The domestic methanol market price will be reduced by 5 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between spot methanol and urea in Shandong will be reduced to - 55 yuan / ton. With the decline of urea spot price, the benefit of urea production is decreasing, and the methanol urea price difference may usher in the opportunity of negative to positive.

In terms of melamine, the domestic melamine operating rate this week was 62.43%, with a month on month increase of 5.26%. Melamine price stability, production profit is still below the loss line.
Urea Export and international market

The international urea market remained stable, with China's FOB price of small particles in bulk reduced by US $3 to US $226.5/t; the price of Arabian Gulf was US $227.0/t; the price of Baltic Sea was US $211.0/t. The market for large particles is slightly differentiated. The FOB price of bulk large particles in China is lowered by US $2 / T, the price of Iran is stable, and the Arabian Gulf is up by $2.5/t, which has been continuously higher in recent years.

Production is expected to pick up this Sunday, but not much. The main enterprises to resume production will be concentrated after July 10, and there will be centralized production resumption at the end of the month.