The urea fluctuation in the dealer's impression seems to depend on the "mood", as if he wants to rise and then rise. So far, it has not broken away from the strange circle of "rising price in off-season and reducing price in peak season". At present, the price of individual enterprises in the domestic urea market has risen slightly, whether the scattered demand or the start-up has dropped slightly. However, the overall trend of urea is still bearish, which is not as simple as going up if you want to rise. Most manufacturers still think that the price of urea will fall down. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the changes of three factors, namely, agriculture, industry and large-scale agricultural material suppliers.

At present, the price of individual urea in some areas of Shanxi and Shandong has risen slightly by 10 yuan / ton, but that is all. Although the start-up of urea industry is at a low level, most of the regional urea enterprises are slow in moving goods, and the market price continues to fall. For example, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shanxi Province is about 1520-1530 yuan / ton, and some low-end urea prices are 1460 yuan / ton, while the prices of some urea from Sichuan and Chongqing areas outside the province are only 1580-1600 yuan / ton, and some markets are in the situation of price and no market. No matter what trend is in the southeast and northwest, the bearish trend of urea price reduction seems to be "rising".

First of all, the low start-up trend of urea enterprises added to the market at the later stage. According to the statistics of CNFC, up to now, the overall industry operating rate of urea enterprises is 53.47%, and the daily total output is about 150000 tons. The start-up has rebounded compared with the previous period. It is also necessary to take into account the situation of some urea enterprises which have been overhauled in the near future and in the late ten days, such as some urea enterprises in Shandong and Inner Mongolia, as well as the commissioning progress of new production capacity It is possible to resume production at the end of the year. In the second half of the year, new urea plants in Jiangxi and Hubei will be put into operation. At that time, the supply of goods in the market will increase significantly, and the problem of overcapacity will be in front of us again, and the degree of excess will be more obvious.

Secondly, agricultural topdressing is generally over, small-scale topdressing is also at the end, and industrial support is limited. The use of agricultural fertilizer has basically ended, and partial top dressing is also in the finishing stage. Compared with the output of the enterprise, the bulk replenishment of goods is a drop in the bucket compared with the output of the enterprise, and it is still early from the autumn fertilizer application time. The grass-roots market will wait and see, especially this year, the rainfall in many areas is heavy, and the grain and other crops are seriously affected, which does not rule out the reduction of fertilizer consumption in the grass-roots market at the later stage; the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises is slowly picking up, The Wheat Fertilizer policy has been introduced in succession, and the demand for raw material urea has increased to a certain extent. However, due to the low price of some explosive compound fertilizers and the poor collection situation, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production is not good. It seems that the "forgotten" plywood factory is still at a low level, the pressure of the plate plant is relatively high, the production activity is not high, the purchase intention of urea is not large, and the overall purchase quantity is also relatively small. The fluctuation of international urea price is mutual, which has limited support for China's urea market.

Finally, ammonium chloride is not a drag on urea. The main market of ammonium chloride is stable, and the price of some low load enterprises has risen by 10 yuan / ton. Now, the supply of wet ammonium in East China is a little tight. The mainstream ex factory quotation is about 500-530 yuan / T, and the mainstream ex factory quotation of dry ammonium is about 590-620 yuan / T, which is still stable in the short term, and can support urea to a certain extent.

To sum up, urea enterprises start to pick up in succession. The demand for agricultural off-season may rely on short-term industrial demand to support the recovery and rebound of prices in the later stage. However, it will be difficult to improve in the near future due to the oversupply. In particular, the industry has a pessimistic outlook, and it is not as simple as going up if you want to rise. It is expected that the urea market will be stable and weak in the short term, and some transaction prices may be moderate But in the long run, the market is still promising.