On July 22-24, urea rose for three days. On July 27-28, urea in Lianghe, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces in Shandong Province dropped slightly, and only Inner Mongolia rose. Today, quotations from some manufacturers in Shandong Province rose again. In the past seven days, several major events have taken place in the urea market. For example, India has successively issued procurement bidding; for example, India has revised the bidding requirements twice; for example, the international urea price has risen sharply; for example, the urea futures limit on 23rd and the down limit on 28th are closely related to the rise and fall of urea price in China. In this article, we will talk about them in detail.

On the evening of July 22, India issued a new round of urea procurement bidding, which was only 13 days away from the previous tender issued on the 9th, which made the export confidence of Chinese urea manufacturers doubled. The lowest bid price of the east coast was 240.75 US dollars / ton (CIF) on the 9th. Only 119500 tons of urea was awarded, which was far lower than the expected target quantity of about 1 million tons before the bidding. India held the new bidding quickly just for replenishment. The price rise in the bidding held on the 22nd was inevitable.

On the evening of July 24, India issued supplementary provisions for bidding: (1) bidders from countries with land borders with India are eligible to bid only if they are registered with the competent authorities specified above. (2) The bidder shall not be allowed to subcontract the procurement to any subcontractor in the supply chain of a country with land boundary in India, unless the subcontractor has registered with the competent authority of India according to the order.

On the evening of July 28, India amended its terms again: allowing traders to offer Chinese bids. (1) If the trader is not in China and does not need to register, it can supply Chinese goods. (2) If Chinese traders want to bid, they need to register before bidding.

On the 24th, the international urea price rose by 2-9 US dollars / ton compared with the previous week, while the FOB price of large granule urea in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and other places rose again by 10-17 US dollars / ton on 28-29.

On the evening of 22nd, we are confident that a large number of urea manufacturers have won the bidding in India. In particular, some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Hebei have signed orders and started to ship to the ports. This is a good explanation for the rising urea prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia in the second half of last week and the rise in Inner Mongolia this Monday. On the evening of the 27th, we suddenly learned that we could not participate in the bidding, In other words, if you want to win the bid, you have to think of other ways, and you must increase the intermediate cost. It is reasonable for local urea to drop slightly or secretly on the 27th to 28th. However, on the evening of 28th, China's urea can normally participate in the printing. Today, our urea manufacturers are stable and even foolish to rise. The reason is that, as expected at the beginning, China's urea may win the bid of more than 300000 tons, and the price may be higher than the previous one At least 10 US dollars / ton, new Chinese urea offshore may be more than 235 US dollars, converted to Shandong factory factory factory more than 1550 yuan, so the current Shandong factory near 1580 yuan level may hit the bottom and rebound in the short term.
After making fun of the printing mark, it is back to the origin. Naturally, the urea manufacturers in China also want to support the price again.
On July 23, China's urea futures trading limit, it is reported that capital may flow into urea futures, the economic environment is poor, domestic and foreign funds lack of good projects to invest, fertilizer and grain are naturally the focus of attention of some capital people, capital intervention disrupted the urea futures market. However, India later revised the rules on the 24th to not allow Chinese urea to participate, especially before that, the central government set "internal circulation" on the 21st, which had already made foreign capital withdraw, and the limit of urea futures on 28th could be explained.

Our urea manufacturers once again focus on the domestic demand of printing standard, compound fertilizer plant and other aspects, domestic daily urea production, etc. roughly speaking, in this printing standard, Chinese urea manufacturers can win the bid of more than 300000 tons, and the compound fertilizer plants still have procurement demand. The daily output of urea is slightly reduced to 157000 tons, but it will slowly rise to more than 160000 tons. If the speed is slow, plus the slow export of Xinjiang urea, it will be short During the period, the price of urea in China can support the price, even rise slightly; in any case, the market in the second half of August is still uncertain, or continues to rise slightly, or in the case of high supply, low export and low domestic demand, similar low prices or even lower prices appear.