Recently, the hot topic is "printing label". Under a printing label, the "additional" conditions are constantly changing, which affects the fluctuation of urea futures and spot prices. With the dust of additional conditions settled, the printing label is also gradually clear. India received 13 bids in the bidding ended on July 30, including 10 bids meeting the requirements, with a total amount of 1.63 million tons. The lowest bid price is US $259.59 for the east coast and US $257.70 for the port on the west coast. After deducting about US $15 of sea freight and intermediate costs, it is equivalent to US $244.6 offshore from China The price advantage is great. At present, the domestic urea price is generally rising under the "heating degree", with the range of 20-40 yuan / ton. Judging from the increase, the price rise is smooth compared with the previous bidding, but there are still some concerns about the urea trend.

No matter how many concerns and concerns, urea prices in many regions have risen in line with the trend. The mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei has risen to about 1650-1670 yuan / ton, and that in Henan Province is about 1590-1610 yuan / ton. As of yesterday, the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area of Shandong Province for urea is about 1650-1660 yuan / ton, but the progress of receiving urea is still slow and has to be pursued The price of urea is still lagging behind.

First of all, urea enterprises have no centralized and long-term maintenance, and its overall industry operating rate is high. At present, some urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Anhui and other regions are overhauled. The urea plant of a plant in Shandong will be overhauled from June 6. The rest of the enterprises are in normal production. In addition, a new production capacity of Shandong will also be delivered in about a week. A urea enterprise in Anhui has plans to resume production. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, the total industry start-up of urea enterprises is about 55.85%, The total daily output is about 156700 tons, and the start-up has increased significantly compared with the previous period, and there is an increasing trend in the later stage; in addition, the market of liquid ammonia in some markets is weak, the price is low, and the enterprises are under pressure to carry goods, especially under the high temperature weather, so it is not ruled out that some enterprises may choose urea which focuses on the improvement of the market.

Second, the domestic demand is light, but in fact it is dragging the back leg of urea. The fertilizer used in agricultural market is in the off-season, and there are only scattered and small orders of goods at the grass-roots level all over the country. Although there is a demand for Wheat Fertilizer in August, after all, the demand is small, and autumn is the main field of phosphate fertilizer. At present, the industrial demand for urea can slightly make up for the vacancy in the agricultural market, but the industrial demand is also limited. First, the overall industry start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises has only risen to about 54.34%, and the start-up of small and medium-sized enterprises is still on the low side, and enterprises purchase raw material urea on demand; second, the demand for plywood factories and power plants is not large; third, large agricultural material suppliers purchase on demand, especially the price of urea is on the rise At the stage of operation, procurement is also a short-term operation and there is no demand for large orders.
Thirdly, the international market is the key support to boost the improvement of domestic urea in China. From the above-mentioned printing price and the estimated bid winning quantity of urea in China from 250000 to 350000 tons, the current factory quotation of urea in Inner Mongolia is about 1440-1460 yuan / ton, and the export still has advantages, and the number of its bid will be announced later. Finally, some parts of the small nitrogenous fertilizer ammonium chloride market have declined slightly, and now they are mainly running smoothly, which has little impact on urea, which is not considered as the degree of lagging behind.

In a word, the urea price increase is based on the "long-standing plan" or the temporary intention of the printing mark. With the support of the international market and export expectation, the urea market is expected to continue to develop well, and the price still has moderate room to rise. However, due to the domestic market demand and new production capacity, it is expected that the price rise will last for a long time I'm afraid it won't last long.