In the eagerness of people's expectation, the long July finally passed and August arrived as scheduled. Looking back on July, it can be said that the agricultural material market has experienced twists and turns. The sudden heavy rain seems to have dampened the confidence of the market and brought some obstacles to the purchase and sale of chemical fertilizers in some regions. At the same time, it also declared that the fertilizer in autumn was in a state of anxiety. As expected, during the whole July period, the autumn compound fertilizer market can be described by the word "downturn". In addition to the "hot" advance orders issued by enterprises, the follow-up of new orders is rare, and the aftermarket is full of pessimism. However, things often go against our wishes. The capricious printing of labels brings hope again.

In fact, during July, the urea market was also ups and downs. After all, Wheat Fertilizer in autumn is the home of phosphate fertilizer, and the narrow fluctuation of urea price may not have a significant impact on it. In the case of hard to find the good, the price increase is always more realistic than the price reduction. The preliminary results of this round of printing are satisfactory. The bidding price is basically the same as the current urea factory price in the main domestic production areas, which provides support for domestic export of goods. As for the quantity of bid winning, of course, the more the better. At the beginning of the publication of the bid, the relevant provisions meant that it was very difficult for Chinese suppliers to participate in the bidding. Then, the international urea price turned around, and the rising trend was fierce. Under various pressures, India had to adjust the bidding rules, and China's urea supply got a new opportunity. With the end of the domestic agricultural demand market, the pressure of urea plants is gradually increasing. At least, this marking can bring breathing opportunities. In addition, some factories have maintenance plans in the near future, so the supply of urea is mainly tight in the short term, and the price rising trend naturally forms. Urea will not let go of any price increase opportunities, so can the compound fertilizer market take this to rebuild market confidence?

First of all, what about the cost? When it comes to the cost of compound fertilizer, the first thing to think about is the price of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer. As mentioned above, the price of urea may be strong in the short term. However, the performance of phosphate fertilizer market in the near future is somewhat unsatisfactory. In autumn, the purchasing activities of ammonium monoammonium of compound fertilizer enterprises are slow, and the transaction of new orders is general. Most of them are purchased on demand, and the market heat is low. The potash fertilizer market is also tepid, and the market price changes not big. According to the statistics of zhongfei.com, as of the end of this week, the pure raw material cost of 45% chlorine based high nitrogen / high phosphorus series (such as 25-14-6 / 18-22-5) is about 1566 / 1568 yuan / ton, which has been stable for several weeks. At present, the possibility of large fluctuation of raw material market in autumn stage is small, so the cost tends to be stable.

Second, what about the demand? Not surprisingly, the demand for Wheat Fertilizer in autumn this year will decline compared with that in previous years, and the market may end ahead of time. The first reason is that the main production areas of winter wheat lose a lot after the flood disaster, such as Anhui, Shandong and other places. The planting crops in some areas are seriously flooded, and the grass-roots agricultural income is bound to decrease. In the next autumn, the preparation progress and enthusiasm of the market may decline Second, the market price is too low. This autumn's wheat fertilizer market is not only too early to start, but also frequent low prices. In the previous stage, some enterprises have made use of the advantages of explosive products to carry out more than half of the pre harvest, and the remaining demand space of some parts is far less than expected. Therefore, the demand side tends to be bearish.

Finally, what about emotions? In addition to cost and demand, Xiaobian thinks that another important factor affecting the market trend is the mood of all parties. At present, the upstream enterprises are mainly in a tense mood. Due to the slow follow-up of new orders, some enterprises' inventory pressure is gradually increasing, and the possibility of maintenance is not likely in the short term. The demand for the following tourism is still stagnant, then the situation of stock expansion is likely to occur; the sentiment of downstream dealers is also strong Calm, that is, there is no rush to prepare goods. First, it is still a long time from the actual sales season, so it is risky to take goods too early; second, there is insufficient confidence in the future market and the price expectation is pessimistic. Even if the current quotation of enterprises is relatively low, it is difficult to arouse downstream purchasing interest. Therefore, the mood is generally cautious.

To sum up, after repeated bidding of urea in India, the domestic urea price has increased after all, which has played a positive role in the new stage of the autumn market in August. It is expected that the heat of Wheat Fertilizer Market in this month will be higher than that in July, and the follow-up demand may appear one after another.