In August, the fertilizer market is really colorful and hot topics continue. The most noticeable one is the reversal of urea market, and the domestic factory quotation has risen. So far, the mainstream factory quotation of small granule urea in Shandong has reached 1670-1680 yuan / ton, and the rising trend may continue in the short term, which has brought a full surprise to the off-season market. Urea price is rising this time. Although unexpected factors account for a large proportion, the time is just right.

In one month, India has issued three consecutive urea bidding, and the bid price is "bid price rising", far exceeding the expectation. The domestic urea demand has been gradually weakened, but the supply quantity has not been adjusted much. Although the urea bidding in India is rough, it is ultimately the participation of Chinese suppliers, which greatly reduces the pressure of domestic supply and demand, and the price of urea plant is rising. Urea prices have been touted as "unusual" by some voices, and there are also voices of pessimism towards the future market. However, at present, it coincides with the sprint stage of the domestic autumn compound fertilizer market. The recovery of urea market has brought a boost to the already difficult autumn fertilizer market. It is believed that with this blessing, the market situation in the latter half of autumn fertilizer may be refreshing.

First, cost support is more stable. Since the launch of autumn fertilizer, its raw material cost has been relatively low compared with the same period last year, which is also the main reason for the frequent low price of autumn Wheat Fertilizer of various enterprises this year. So far, the fluctuation of raw material cost is very limited, and the price of autumn fertilizer is relatively stable. In addition to the low price of some explosives, most of the prices are still in the mainstream level The market of phosphorus and potassium fertilizer is more stable than that of urea. Instead of reducing the price as expected, the price of urea has risen instead. This has also brought a rare favorable support to the cost of compound fertilizer. If the cost does not fall back in the short term, the reason for the price reduction of compound fertilizer is not so sufficient. The price of Wheat Fertilizer in the middle and second half of the period may become stable.

Second, surplus demand will eventually be released. As for fertilizer demand this autumn, many people do not hold much hope for the same reasons. Up to now, the progress of Wheat Fertilizer Market in some regions is about 50%, that is to say, half of the remaining demand is waiting to be released. In fact, the demand is lagging behind rather than the demand reduction. The first reason is that the determination of mainstream price needs to be deliberated for a period of time, and enterprises should not only consider their own profits Space also needs to be adjusted according to the mentality of the downstream. Once confirmed, price adjustment will not affect the progress of downstream goods taking; the second reason is that the downstream goods taking has got rid of the previous rules of stock preparation, and the prudence is more obvious. If the market price fluctuates or the expectation is pessimistic, it will maintain a rational purchasing mind and step by step.

Finally, the winter storage market keeps pace. The plot of compound fertilizer market is like returning to summer and autumn. Now, the autumn fertilizer market has not completely ended, and some winter storage activities have begun "secretly". As the Northeast market with the largest demand for winter storage, the Northeast market is bearing the brunt. Recently, some enterprises have officially issued relevant quotation and advance collection policies for Northeast winter storage, and the price level has dropped significantly compared with previous years. The early start-up time of winter storage means that this year's winter storage competition will be very anxious. However, it also promotes the promotion of the autumn market. The autumn fertilizer can not be finished, and the winter storage market can not be expanded in a large area. It is not so much that the early start of winter storage is the first opportunity for enterprises to seize the market, but to promote the better end of autumn fertilizer.

To sum up, the trend of urea fancy price increase may continue in the short term, and the possibility of compound fertilizer price reduction in autumn will be reduced. Recently, dealers will start to pick up products one after another, and it is expected that a wave of small climax will be ushered in the middle and late ten days.