Since the start of India's "double? Double" bidding last Saturday and the annual import bidding of urea in ergeria, the domestic urea price has entered the fast forward mode. The mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province has risen to 1740-1760 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea from Linyi compound fertilizer enterprises is 1750-1770 yuan, and that of Hebei Province is 17 In a short period of one week, under the premise that domestic demand for capital is the off-season, the domestic urea price has increased by more than 100 yuan. Among them, the urea quotation of some enterprises in Shandong Province has continuously increased within one day, and some enterprises have suspended the quotation and suspended the collection The urea market is not weak in the off-season. Although some enterprises still purchase moderately due to hard demand, the momentum of this price increase is just like trump, who has been hot recently. The reasons for the rapid price increase of urea are as follows:

First of all, the international market demand continues to increase. In half a month, India's market demand continued to make efforts, and three times of bidding were conducted. After India finished bidding last Friday, India started bidding again the next day. In the early stage of international market, it was rumored that India's demand gap was as high as 2 million tons, but it still did not exceed 1 million tons after the two bidding. This time, India's buyer's market was relatively passive due to continuous bidding In addition, the annual urea bidding in El Goliath was also launched this week. The annual bidding volume was 1 million tons. Recently, the FOB price of China's large granule urea export was US $270, equivalent to the low-end arrival price of more than 1800 yuan. Driven by this, the ex factory price of large granule urea in Shanxi Province was also pushed up to 1720 yuan. From the above situation, the recent demand of the international market It is more than 2 million tons, and the international market price is high. Even though the domestic market demand is relatively poor, there are many orders for enterprises to gather in port recently, so there is no pressure on supply in the short term.

Secondly, the recent release of urea supply is relatively slow. Although some enterprises which have been out of production for a long time have resumed production recently, some enterprises are still in the process of stopping production recently. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the actual daily output of urea in China is about 160000 tons. Because most enterprises mainly supply export orders recently, and the supply is relatively low, during the execution of export orders in the near future, the supply of urea is in short-term short-term, so even if the domestic urea market is in the near future Demand is limited, but downstream factories due to hard demand, transaction price is gradually pushing up.

To sum up, the domestic urea market has been driven by the international market in recent years, and the price of Northeast market has also been raised recently due to the price adjustment. However, due to the single profit this time, some downstream markets remain relatively cautious. In a comprehensive view, the overall price of urea should not decline during the export period of enterprises, and there are still signs of upward adjustment, and the export ends After that, the price may decline. If you want to bet, the market still needs to be cautious.