In the early days of India's bidding on August 10, there were various speculations. As of yesterday, the lowest bidding price of India was 289 US dollars / ton on the west coast and 290.5 dollars / ton on the east coast. After deducting transportation and other expenses, the price of Shandong's main outflow urea plant is about 1740-1760 yuan / ton, In line with the price, and there is a small possibility of pushing up, so whether the printing mark has become the "chip" of urea rising again in China at this time will also need to be confirmed. Domestic industry and agriculture need the off-season, so the goods can't keep up with the price rising rhythm, and the market will inevitably go upside down. It seems that the "basic skill" of urea price rise is not solid relying on the support of printing mark.

The mainstream of domestic urea market is stable, and some enterprises continue to push up. It seems that some small drops will not hurt. According to China fertilizer network, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei is about 1820 yuan / ton, the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area of Shandong Province is about 1780 yuan / ton, and that of Anhui Province is about 1740-1820 yuan / ton, However, due to the fact that domestic fertilizer is in the off-season, there is little demand for urea, and there is no lack of grass-roots wholesale in some areas of China. For example, in recent years, the wholesale price of large granule urea in some areas of Jiangxi Province is about 1750-1800 yuan / ton, while the wholesale price of small-sized urea in Jiangsu Province has risen to about 1780-1800 yuan / ton, but there is no market for it. At this time, the downstream market is looking for high-priced urea However, the manufacturers hope to continue to support their prices with the help of the printing marks.

First of all, marking is indeed the supporting factor for the continuous improvement of urea in China. The first paragraph of the article mentioned that the price of printing mark is considerable relative to the mainstream price in China, and it is speculated that China's supply of goods may account for 350000 tons, and after the port shipment is smooth, the price and volume of urea will also be increased.

Secondly, the overall operating rate of urea enterprises has risen at a high level, and the production schedule of new production capacity is also on the agenda. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, up to now, the overall operating rate of urea enterprises is about 53.58%, and the total daily output is about 150400 tons, In addition, a new production capacity has been put into production in Shandong, and some urea enterprises with low load or shutdown are also ready to recover. Jiangxi, Hubei, Xinjiang and Anhui have plans to put new production capacity into operation, and the problem of urea overcapacity is becoming more and more obvious. The liquid ammonia Market is crumbling, and the price is high, but it is in the falling stage, If it continues to decline sharply, some enterprises may shift their production focus to urea slightly.

Thirdly, the domestic agricultural demand is off-season, and the industrial demand is limited. At present, the performance of the agricultural market is as calm as water. Some grass-roots markets only purchase sporadically, and traders resist high price urea, so they mainly wait and see. With the continuous rise of urea price, and at a time when most people in the industry are wavering about the rising price of urea, large traders' reserves have become cautious, and the procurement is carried out on demand, with high input and high output operation; the start-up of industrial compound fertilizer enterprises About 57%, but due to the influence of rain and hot weather in some southern regions, some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises have to limit production or stop production. In addition, the sales progress of compound fertilizer enterprises is not good, and the production enthusiasm is not high. Fortunately, the demand for urea in plywood factories and power plants is still considerable.

Finally, in a comprehensive view, in the off-season of domestic urea demand, the supply does not decrease, and the contradiction in the overall market is still the imbalance between supply and demand. Only relying on the marking has become a chip for price increase. Although it is hot in the short term, it may be difficult to maintain it for a long time, and the bearish mood in the industry may become more obvious.