Recently, urea has been on fire again and again. The overall price has soared by more than 100 yuan (ton price, the same below). Urea futures also fluctuate. The factory quotation of high-end urea in Shandong Province has also risen to 1790 yuan, and some high-end factory bidding prices in Hebei Province have soared to 1860 yuan. Although urea prices have risen by more than 100 yuan a week, it is rare to see a reverse rise in autumn off-season, India However, the domestic urea price has begun to decline recently. Now, the mainstream factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1750-1790 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 1740-1760 yuan, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei Province is 1800 yuan, and that in Henan Province is 1740-1760 yuan The mainstream factory quotation is 1720-1750 yuan, and that of Shanxi urea is 1630 yuan

First, the trend of Indian demand has become the biggest vane. Before the last three bidding, international news showed that India's urea demand gap reached 2 million tons, the total bidding volume of the first two times was about 8000000 tons, while the total bidding volume of urea this time was about 1.28 million tons. From the digital level, it just exceeded the recent total demand gap of India, but from the price level, the urea price of the third bidding was obviously higher than that of the previous two, It is impossible for India to win all the bids this time, which leads to a question. There is still a gap in the Indian market. Will the bidding be conducted again? And if the bidding is to be held in the near future, the FOB price of most urea exporting countries has risen by more than $20 due to the pull of Indian mark in the international market. If the bidding is conducted again, the price will continue to rise It is not favorable for the Indian market, and with the passage of time, the goods tendered in the early stage will arrive at the port one after another, and the tense demand will be alleviated. However, some pessimistic and expectant people think that the recent bidding in India may have the behavior of destroying orders, because once the order is destroyed, urea in many places may have greater supply pressure, and the price will drop After that, the cost pressure may be reduced. Therefore, in view of the above situation, the Indian market is full of variables, and the price may decline.

Second, the domestic market is good and single. Although it is the peak season of autumn fertilizer production recently, the proportion of urea is relatively low, and some downstream compound fertilizer plants still have more low-cost sources to be consumed, so the supply is not tight. At present, the traders agree that the price of urea is rising, but they hold negative opinions on purchasing a large number of high-priced sources, and instead sell short. Because there are still low-cost sources in hand, urea enterprises increase prices for For traders, it is the best time to raise the price. On the one hand, it can recover the funds quickly, and on the other hand, the profits are relatively high. At present, there is no demand in the agricultural market in many places. At present, the domestic urea sales flow is relatively small. However, the urea price in the early stage has risen too fast, and the price implemented by the factory and the trader is out of touch. After the temporary end of the printing mark, the domestic urea price will come out Now it has a certain decline.

To sum up, at the present stage, due to the relatively single domestic favorable situation, the flow direction of urea enterprises is reduced, and the urea price of high price is likely to decline, while the urea price of social links may be increased. It is expected that the urea quotation in mainstream areas will be mainly reduced in the near future, and the market urea will rise slightly. When the two urea enterprises are integrated, the quotation will tend to be stable.