India has recently invited four tenders in a row, but since the announcement of the tender on August 26, The overall price of urea has declined to a certain extent. At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1650-1660 yuan, that of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 1680-1690 yuan, that of Hebei Province is 1710-1780 yuan, that of Henan Province is 1640-1650 yuan, that of Shanxi Province is 1570 yuan and that of large particles is 1590 yuan. At present, the transaction in the domestic market is relatively poor, and the agricultural demand is basically temporarily suspended. Due to the low price of inventory to be consumed in the early stage of the industrial market, the volume of new orders is relatively poor. However, some enterprises in Northeast China and other places have to issue tens of thousands of tons of orders recently, and there is still a certain gap in the autumn fertilizer market. The latest shipping date of India's bidding is October 15, which means that the urea enterprises will be in a month and a half There is still the flow direction of the port within a certain period of time. So, is it possible for the domestic urea price to rise after the printing of the label? According to most industry, there may be price increase, but the possibility is relatively small, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First of all, the social inventory is too much and the purchasing enthusiasm is low. Since the end of July, the demand for large areas of agricultural market has basically stopped. Some downstream markets have purchased some urea at a low price in the early stage. Due to the temporary suspension of demand in the primary market, the overall consumption of urea in social sectors is relatively low, which is affected by the epidemic this year, Although the demand for compound fertilizer has existed for a long time, on the one hand, there is still inventory with low price to be consumed. On the other hand, the overall construction is relatively general. Even considering the annual cost, the market does not think that the urea price has reached the bottom at this stage, and the overall purchasing enthusiasm is relatively low. Some enterprises in Northeast China begin to take large quantities of goods The reason is that the inventory of urea carried forward in spring is relatively small, such as centralized late purchase, which may lead to the supply shortage of urea enterprises and the possibility of temporary shipment.

Secondly, the supply pressure is too high. Compared with the same period last year, the overall supply of urea is slightly smaller, and the daily output of urea in China is only 154000 tons, but what is different from last year is that some new urea plants will be put into production or have already been put into production, and the enterprises that have stopped urea production at this stage are about to resume production. Before the middle of September, the daily output of urea will increase significantly, So far this year, 2 + 26 cities have no notice of environmental protection and production restriction, and most gas companies have learned that there is no gas restriction plan this winter. That is to say, the later the urea is, the greater the supply pressure will be, and the price will decline at that time.

To sum up, although some regions began to store urea in winter ahead of time, the market oversupply, and the overall price still showed signs of decline, but the overall rate of decline should not be too large. After all, the current number of ports still exists, and the pressure in the short term is not big or slow to decline.