As we all know, on the evening of August 26, India announced the bidding price of the fourth recent bidding. The CIF of the east coast port was 283.52 dollars, which was only 5.5 dollars lower than the 289 dollars in the east coast bidding on August 10, which was an extraordinary high price! This price is about 268 US dollars offshore of China urea, which is higher than 260-268 US dollars offshore guidance price of China's large and small particles at the end of last week, and much higher than the recent domestic trade price (248-255 US dollars for export).
On the other hand, due to the relatively loose shipping schedule before October 5, the bidding quantity obtained in this bidding is as high as 2.34 million tons, which is much higher than the previous 1.285 million tons. What's more, it should be noted that India made a counter-offer to all suppliers at the lowest bidding price. In the last bidding, the total scalar was 952000 tons. It can be seen that India continues to be out of stock!

It's endless! Changes in urea market in China? Before the bidding, the urea price in Shandong, Henan and other places dropped by 100-170 yuan / ton, and after the bidding, the price quickly increased by 10-40 yuan / ton.

What is the reason for the price to go up?

First, the price of the printing mark is too high, there is support. Although China's ports are limited in loading and unloading, if they really sign for export, the combined port price will be as high as 1850 yuan / ton. After deducting the port miscellaneous and freight, the factory price of Shandong manufacturers can reach 1690-1720 yuan / ton. At present, Shandong has only 1620-1640 yuan / ton of goods. From the perspective of export price, there is an opportunity to rise.

Second, the mentality has improved and the shipment has improved. Since August 15, the price has fallen for nearly half a month. Traders and small and medium-sized dealers are eager to sell. Besides the port flow, the flow direction of urea manufacturers is very poor. The good thing is that after this period of time, the domestic trade of some factories is more than 10000. With the stimulation of high price of printing label, urea manufacturers have confidence in rising, and traders can take more opportunities Sales kill two birds with one stone.

Third, the supply is temporarily low. Due to the unexpected shutdown, the daily output of urea this week was only 150000 tons, which was slightly lower. Originally, all buyers intended to keep the price down, but after all, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was only slightly lower, and the plywood factory would receive new products after the rainy season. It is reasonable for urea manufacturers to tentatively raise the price.

Finally, it is worth mentioning that the biggest restriction on the price rise is still the slow loading and unloading at the port. The time for resuming loading is postponed from 15th to 20th, 25th and even early September. The first two bidding shipping dates of India are September 4th and 10th respectively. According to cnfc.cn, most urea manufacturers are waiting for export orders ranging from 10000 to 50000, and the goods can not be delivered out This part of urea inventory reserved for export is particularly eye-catching, especially because it is a high price signature. In short, the urea manufacturers are reserved for the next big rise in urea prices.

For example, if the price is difficult to rise in the short term, it will go down again even after the price rise. After all, after all, when the bid winning quantity of the fourth printing mark is clear, in case that the quantity of urea won in our country is very few, we will miss such an opportunity for manufacturers and dealers to take advantage of the opportunity of price increase to sell urea inventory in their hands.