As we all know, India's fourth consecutive bidding has drawn the curtain of attention in the industry. Whether it is India's lowest CIF east coast port price of 283.52 US dollars (ton price, the same below), the lowest CIF West Coast price of 288.89 US dollars, or the total bidding of 1.7 million tons in India, it is rumored that China will occupy about 800000 tons. In terms of price and quantity, it plays a certain role in domestic urea However, the bidding has passed for a few days, but the price of urea in many places in China has risen relatively slowly, and even the urea quotation in some regions has declined to some extent: the mainstream factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1640-1680 yuan, the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 1700 yuan, and the transaction reference is about 1640 yuan, The mainstream factory quotation of urea in Hebei Province is 1740-1790 yuan, and that in Henan Province is 1650 yuan. The prices in the above regions have increased to a certain extent, but some regional prices have declined slightly compared with the previous period. The mainstream factory quotation of urea in Shanxi Province is 1530-1540 yuan, large granule is 1580 yuan, and the low-end transaction of small granule urea in Jincheng area is referred to 1510 yuan for delivery, even 4 The transaction reference of urea in Sichuan also dropped to 1600 yuan or slightly lower. This price trend has formed a "totally different" style from the previous Indian bidding. This situation is nothing but the following.

First of all, the port loading restrictions still exist, and the flow of enterprise shipment is hindered. In the past month, India has started to invite tenders for four times in a row. Driven by this, the international price has also increased. In particular, in the last two tenders, India bought urea twice with solid "high price". China has won a total of more than 1.4 million tons. However, at present, the supply of port goods is only between 500000 tons and 600000 tons. Due to the influence of the epidemic situation in the early stage, most enterprises have poor export intention and keep in Hong Kong It is relatively small, but it has caught up with large-scale bidding in India this month. At present, the port handling capacity is limited. Even though most enterprises that can export still have the flow direction of ports to be sent, the number of ships that can be loaded on the port is limited, and the enterprises' shipment is hindered, and the domestic price is relatively low.

Secondly, the domestic market demand is limited at this stage. Although the production of compound fertilizer in autumn in China is still continuing, most enterprises still need to consume, and it is still early to reserve fertilizer in winter. However, the purchase quantity of power plant in plate plant is relatively small, and the demand of agricultural market in many places is relatively general. For example, due to the relatively low export advantage in Sichuan, the demand of surrounding industry and agriculture market is general. Although most factories' ex factory quotation is around 1650 yuan, the actual transaction is completed The reference value is only 1600 yuan or slightly lower, while the domestic market starts to maintain a relatively high level at this stage, and the daily output of urea in China remains above the level of 150000 tons, In addition, some downstream distributors said that the potential supply rate in the later stage would be more sufficient, and driven by the uncertain factors of the printing mark, urea may decline. To put it further, even if the price rises in the later stage, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient and the possibility of shortage in the future is relatively low. Therefore, some conservative traders have suspended the purchase in the near future.

To sum up, it can be seen that not every time the printing mark can immediately hype the domestic urea price, but it has to be admitted that in the near future, even if the domestic urea market demand is poor, the domestic urea quotation rate will be increased.