India announced a new tender for urea procurement on the evening of September 30. The tender was opened on October 9. The shipping date was November 16 and the tender was valid until October 19.
It has been more than a month since the last bidding on August 18, which shows the following points: first, India has obtained sufficient urea goods after the previous four bidding; second, India's ports are congested; third, India's financial budget is limited. This new bidding is also caused by the new policy mentioned in the last analysis article of China fertilizer network (on the evening of September 29, the Ministry of fertilizer of India announced that the restrictions on the payment of all subsidies for fertilizers would be lifted from October to December 2020, thus promoting the sale and import of fertilizers. There is usually a ceiling on monthly spending, but that has been removed. Fourth, India is really waiting for the international urea market to cool down before conducting new procurement bidding. Take the Middle East as an example, the FOB price of urea in the Middle East, such as Egypt, has dropped from the peak of 270 US dollars in August to around 250 dollars this week. Although it has not dropped to around 235 dollars in June, there is still a gap in the Indian urea market, so it is a good time to take delivery.

China, as a major supplier, is in the finishing stage of fertilizer consumption in autumn. The domestic urea price in China has returned to a relatively low level again. The situation of port congestion in China has been basically alleviated. In particular, three or two ships of urea in the last bid are still needed by India. With the shipping time of about one month, the supply of urea in China is basically stable.

Let's have a look at the speculation about the price in the printing mark: under the approximate rate, the price in the printing mark does not change much from the current level, or it may be slightly lower, or the shipping date can explain this point. If the price is high, India can hold a new bidding after taking less. If the price is low, India is getting a lot of goods, and then it will not rush to new procurement bidding 。 Assuming that the price of the new printing mark is around 255 US dollars / ton (FOB) of China's urea, it is about 1684 yuan / ton (per ton package price) delivered by Chinese urea manufacturers to Yantai port and other ports. According to different freight charges, the combined factory price is better. Considering that the support of China's urea price is only short storage and possible reduction of production, China's urea may supply a large amount to India In the future, China's urea supply may be short of natural gas due to extreme weather warning, and due to environmental protection requirements, many urea enterprises in Jincheng, Shanxi Province have plans to stop production in November, and the price printed on the label may be higher than the above conjectured price.

On the 9th, the total bidding amount announced by India may be more than 2 million tons, which indicates that urea in the Middle East and other places is facing sales pressure as well as that of Chinese urea. If we look at the lowest bidding price, if the competition is fierce, the FOB price of Chinese urea may fall below 250 US dollars. In addition, the daily output of Zuoyou urea will return to 165000 tons on October 20, and the price of urea in China will come back to a standstill.

However, if the total bidding volume is only around 1-1.5 million tons, it indicates that the urea suppliers in the Middle East and China will continue the strategy in the previous several times and will not compromise the price until India accepts it. Optimistic, the FOB price of urea in China may be around 260 dollars, and the urea price in China will rise by more than 50 yuan.

To sum up, considering that the printing mark was announced after India's deliberation and reconsideration, and the seller will respond cautiously, the international urea price has fallen back for a month in a row. In the short term, China's urea supply is obviously on the rise (at least three urea plants have resumed production during the holiday period). In two days, some urea enterprises will gradually resume the transportation of their urea by automobile A small rise is a high probability event, and it is difficult to have a big wave for the time being.