After returning from the double festival holiday on October 9, the urea price was weak first and then obviously stronger. Especially since October 16, the factory quotation of urea in Shandong and other places has increased by 100-130 yuan / ton. It is worth noting that the demand for urea in the recent Autumn is ending. Such price has been higher than the price level in the summer fertilizer season. Recently, urea has gone crazy! Is that the top?

It is likely that it has not reached the peak yet. Before we talk about this problem, let's first study the reasons for the rapid rise of urea

The first reason is that the export volume is large and the export price is good. In September, China's urea export volume reached 828500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 51.9%. Compared with the monthly output of 4.5 million tons of urea in China, this export volume is relatively large. After all, the number of urea manufacturers that can export in the near future is less than 1 / 3. India won a large number of 2184000 tons in this bidding, of which 635000 tons or nearly 700000 tons of urea in China won the bid. Although it was less than the initial expected 900000 tons, the shipping time was shortened. It was because India opened the bid on Japan No.9, and then it was officially announced until the 14th, which pushed back the time for Chinese urea middlemen to deliver large quantities of urea to ports As a result, some urea manufacturers have been waiting for orders of up to 40000-50000 tons recently, and the amount of urea available for domestic trade is not large, so the price rise is reasonable.

In particular, India may have a shortage of about 2.5 million tons of urea. It is said that the release time of the new bidding may be in the late November. If it is before or after 15 days, it will be very close. After all, the shipping date of the seal is November 16, so the urea can be collected for the new standard printing shortly after the goods are ready to cool down at Gangji port. Of course, this is only a possibility, which may bring urea price At the end of this article, we will discuss this topic again.

The second reason is that domestic delivery is better than expected. Most of the major domestic agricultural materials companies have been receiving the goods, the bidding urea of power plants suddenly increased, and urea futures changed. After all, considering the price rise of coal and natural gas in winter, the start-up of urea will be limited by the pressure of environmental protection or gas shortage; the temperature in many places will be significantly reduced, and the start-up of power plants will be increased obviously, so the demand for urea in terms of desulfurization and denitrification is slightly larger; so is urea futures, given that the urea futures are still Immature, capital flow intervention is relatively large, especially companies with large capital flow may pull up all the way in the spot market, and may lose money in the long run, but the futures market is different. It is all the way up, but there are opportunities to make money at any time. It is feasible for the compound fertilizer plant to accept high price because of the export receiving, domestic large agricultural materials companies and power plants receiving the goods. Although the quantity is not large, it is feasible to bring about moderate increase of urea.

The third reason is that the quantity of urea supply is higher than that in the same period of previous years, but lower than the previous expected 160000 tons. Recently, the daily output of urea is slightly higher than 150000 tons. The main reason is that there are a little more urea manufacturers under planned or unplanned maintenance, which can bring some support to the rise of urea. However, it is worth noting that there are a few more urea enterprises to resume production, Shanxi and other places will start to limit production, and gas head urea manufacturers are also facing the rise of natural gas (international oil price is weak, so it is doubtful whether natural gas can rise), The lack of natural gas depends on whether this winter is a cold winter. Urea supply is changing in real time. The impact on the price should be analyzed specifically. In short, according to incomplete statistics, the overall supply of this year will increase compared with last year. Recently, many places began to transport grain, urea transportation began to be limited, and the impact on the price is also unknown.

In a word, urea manufacturers are more ready to ship, and a few even stop collecting (most of them consider that there are too many to be sent and the transportation is not clear). The manufacturers with export advantages are still gathering in the port, which may last until the 5th or even later. The new bidding in India may be in the middle of November. Therefore, although the price of urea has gone crazy, it is likely that it has not yet reached the top. The specific situation depends on the progress of gathering port and the situation of domestic trade and transportation, It is worth mentioning that considering that the urea price has exceeded the psychological price of most people in the industry, considering that the real consumption demand of domestic trade during the autumn winter intermission period is not too large, and considering that the new printing mark may be the end of November, the domestic urea market in China will certainly cool down in the middle of November. Is the price greatly reduced on the basis of the current sharp rise We observe and analyze.