It's true that urea is still rising slightly. Even if grass-roots agriculture has a price but no market, the adjustment on the start-up due to production restriction, reduction or transfer of production, or the issuance of new bidding in India later, the urea market is not weak in the off-season, but the price is not falling, and the industry market is more confused about the urea trend. However, this is really good for ammonium chloride, supported by high price urea However, the positive trend of ammonium chloride is not only affected by urea.

At present, the domestic market of ammonium chloride is relatively good, and the attitude of the industry has changed. The expectation is cautious and optimistic. The price of ammonium chloride has also increased. However, the increase is limited in the off-season, and the adjustment mode of enterprises is more rational than in previous years. All enterprises have sufficient orders in advance, and the orders are generally full in November, so they need to control or stop receiving orders. The supply of goods in the market is tight. The mainstream factory quotation of wet ammonium in Central China is about 420-480 yuan / ton, which can be discussed separately. If we look at the high level operation of urea, and some of them are still rising slightly, ammonium chloride may be favored by the downstream market.

First of all, urea to a certain extent to support the good trend of ammonium chloride, of course, because of the high price of urea. If the price of natural gas in Southwest China rises, the cost of gas head urea enterprises will increase, and if the price of natural gas in Inner Mongolia will also rise in the later period, the cost will inevitably increase. In addition, the demand for urea by domestic industrial plywood factories and industrial compound fertilizer enterprises is still continuing. In addition, India may issue new bidding during the period of 15-20 of this month, domestic urea enterprises may not be able to avoid speculation. However, in the off-season of the domestic agricultural market, the grass-roots units have no price but wait-and-see.big traders think that the high price urea operation risk is high, so they have a tendency to flinch, and their purchasing enthusiasm is reduced. Moreover, the sales situation of the finished fertilizer of compound fertilizer enterprises is general, so the cost pressure keeps away from the raw material urea. The volume of relatively low-cost ammonium chloride is increasing, but urea is expected to fall back, In addition to urea, the supply and demand of ammonium chloride itself is the key.

Secondly, the operating rate of ammonium chloride industry fluctuated about 70%, although there was no obvious downward trend and no increase expectation. Although the soda ash market is in a downturn and the price has dropped a lot, from the point of view of double ton cost, the United soda enterprise has no plan to actively reduce the start-up. At the end of the month, some enterprises stop production, and some plants in Jiangsu and Sichuan will keep the low load production status. At the same time, it does not rule out the short-term shutdown and reduction due to policy reasons or temporary fault of the device. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, up to now, the whole industry of combined soda enterprises has started about 72.2%, and the daily total output is about 37800 tons; in addition, the ammonium chloride inventory of each plant is low, the social inventory pressure is not great, and the advance orders are sufficient, so the supply of goods is still tight in the short term.

Once again, the demand for ammonium chloride increased steadily. First, the price of urea is rising at a high level, which is quite different from the relatively low price of ammonium chloride. Therefore, some compound fertilizer enterprises are more active in purchasing ammonium chloride, and the purchasing quantity is also increasing steadily; second, traders are optimistic about ammonium chloride and have reserve expectation; third, the progress of winter storage in Northeast China is fair, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is relatively strong. Although the increase is not big, the progress of purchasing is relatively slow Steady.

Finally, in a comprehensive view, the urea market is not weak in the off-season, and the domestic demand or raw materials and other supporting prices have risen to a high level, which also makes the pressure of compound fertilizer enterprises increase sharply, and ammonium chloride is supported. But after all, the demand for ammonium chloride is also limited. In the near future, under the influence of factors such as tight supply of ammonium chloride and better demand, it is expected that ammonium chloride will continue to develop well with a small and steady upward trend.