Last week, after Shandong and other places entered the heating period, local chemical plants were told to suspend steam, so the urea market demand decreased, and the price dropped slightly. However, after March and fourth of this week, the environmental protection ban was lifted, and the downstream market was slightly restored. The price of Shandong and other places increased slightly, and the overall price was also explored and transported by fire The price of the factory is also relatively high. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1800 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 1820-1830 yuan, that of Hebei Province is 1800-1820 yuan, that of Henan Province is 1790-1810 yuan, that of Shanxi Province is 1730 yuan and that of large granule is 1730-1740 yuan The price of urea is about 1780 yuan. Although the current agricultural market is not performing well, due to the support of industrial market demand, the price of urea is slightly higher than before. However, in recent days, urea has ushered in a favorable injection.

Recently, there is another wind coming from the market: India's urea bidding is about to start again. It is reported that the bidding volume in India may reach 1.6-1.8 million tons, and according to international news, in addition to China's supply, the market can only sell between 700000 and 800000 tons. Although China's current price is relatively higher than that of the international market (based on the current mainstream prices, should China's current FOB price be higher than the international market However, if India wants to ensure sufficient procurement volume, urea belonging to China should participate in it, and then the price of domestic urea has been further raised. In fact, the hot spot in the industry is not how much China can occupy this time, but how much more urea can be increased when the printing of the standard is coming. Some compound fertilizer enterprises said that it would be a little awkward to take urea or not at this stage: if you purchase high-priced goods, you need to bear the risks brought by high-level prices. After all, the grass-roots market needs to wait until February before purchasing a large number of them. However, this year, affected by the chemical fertilizer commercial short storage, the receiving storage and circulation enterprises will purchase ahead of time and enter the sales channels after January The overall supply may increase suddenly in the short term, and the price may fall sharply at that time. However, if we wait and see for a while, some compound fertilizers will face the dilemma of shortage of raw materials, and the supply of finished products in the later stage may face certain problems.
Based on the above factors, it is expected that if India starts bidding, the domestic urea price will rise again or remain stable for the time being. However, the high level of urea has made the downstream delivery slightly contradictory. In addition, some traders are selling upside down. It is expected that urea will decline after this wave of price increase. The expected time should not be later than the middle of December, so it is expected that there will be a shortage of raw materials in the near future However, for the agricultural market, the cost of urea is relatively high in the near future, and there is a possibility of a certain decline in the later period. Therefore, we will still take a wait-and-see attitude.