According to the statistics of China Customs, in October 2020, China's urea export volume reached 1.092 million tons, an increase of 67.4% year-on-year, which was much higher than that in other months of this year. In October, a total of 2184000 tons of urea were won in the printing and bidding, accounting for about 586000 tons in China, with the shipping date of November 16. In addition, the latest shipping date of the seal was January 16, which shows that China's Urea Export is still increasing from November to December Plus.
However, since November 22, the price of urea in China has fallen by 20-30 yuan / ton. Although the quotations of some individual manufacturers have increased slightly from 27 to 28, the climate has not yet formed. Will urea prices rise next? Or steady or down? Individuals prefer the latter. as a result of?

As we all know, the helper of urea price rise this year is export and national reserve. Since 2020, China's urea export volume is more than that of the same period last year, but it may not be as large as expected. The export volume from January to October was 4.023 million tons, which was 3.891 million tons in the same period last year. Considering the large export volume from November to December, the annual export of this year may increase by 1 million tons or even 2 million tons. However, it is worth noting that the domestic trade price is much higher than the export price in most of November, with the range of 50 yuan or even 100 yuan in some parts. Therefore, most manufacturers with no export advantages have already focused on this issue In the domestic trade market, especially in the new printing standard, the supply source of urea in China may be only 300000 tons. Even though the amount of urea exported to other high price destinations from November to December will be more than the same period last year, it is possible that the export volume from November to December will increase by more than 1 million tons, but it is difficult to reach 2 million tons. In short, the price of Urea Export is driven by the short-term shortage of China's supply caused by the export shipping date, and the second is to raise the atmosphere of China's domestic trade market.

Considering the slight increase of overall urea production capacity this year, the output also increased year on year. In November, the daily urea output was around 150000 tons, which was more than 15000 tons more than the same period last year. In addition to export, these urea goods basically flowed into the warehouses of those storage companies of the state-owned storage company. It is reported that the urea inventory of some storage companies has been more than 1 / 3 of the total amount of urea storage The target of 50% at the end of December is very close. The next step is the game between these storage companies and urea manufacturers. Therefore, the price of urea is likely to be stable or down. Unless the price rises sharply in the printed label, China's Urea Export is more than 300000 tons. In view of the delay of the printing mark, the delivery of urea to the port has not been smooth, which is unlikely.

To sum up, in view of the fact that China's urea will win the bid appropriately in this printing standard, the national fertilizer commercial reserve target must be completed by 2020, and the production of industrial compound fertilizer enterprises, power plants and plywood factories will have appropriate demand. In addition, some urea enterprises will have planned maintenance or cut down production due to high natural gas cost, so the urea price rate will probably stabilize or drop in December, and the estimated decline rate will not be too large Big, occasionally up, but also speculation.