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Recently, the domestic urea market demand has weakened, and I thought that the Indian bidding could add a fire to the domestic market, but there is a big difference between the international and domestic market prices. This week, India's mmtc announced the bidding results, which received more than 2 million tons of bidding. The lowest bid price of India's west coast is 284.77 US dollars (ton price, the same below) CIF. The industry expects to drive the domestic price through printing the bid However, after a short period of time, the news that the urea plants in Henan, Sichuan and Chongqing will stop production and limit production will increase. After a short period of horizontal trading, the quotation of some enterprises begins to rise: the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1780-1800 yuan, that of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 1800 yuan, and that of urea in Hebei Province is mainstream The quotation of the factory is 1800-1820 yuan, that of Henan is 1780-1790 yuan, that of Shanxi Province is 1710 yuan, that of large granule is 1740 yuan, and that of Sichuan Province is 1750-1800 yuan. The market is showing signs of price rise. However, from the following points, there is still a distance from the National urea price rise.
First, market supply is still higher than in the same period in history. Recently, the overall daily output of urea has dropped to about 130000 tons, and the start-up in the later stage may continue to decline. However, according to the operation over the years, the current start-up is almost the same as that in the same period of previous years, and some enterprises only stop short-term operation. There are still plans to resume production around mid and late December. At present, the actual consumption of downstream market is limited, and the surplus supply is still the main background of urea, However, the possibility of re bidding and high price procurement in India is relatively low, the support of international market demand is weak, and the domestic urea price rise is restrained to some extent.
Second, the demand is relatively general. In recent years, only industrial demand still exists in the market, while agricultural market demand has not yet started. However, industrial market procurement can be traced back to the beginning of October. After more than one month's procurement, most compound fertilizer enterprises have inventory reserves of about 40% of urea raw materials. Although there is still a demand gap in the later stage, they are not eager to purchase. However, some enterprises in eastern Mongolia are starting to make minimum profit and interest calculation due to sales obstruction In terms of the current supply and demand situation, at least in the Northeast market, it is difficult to explore the possibility of urea rising in the Northeast market in the near future, and it is difficult to explore the possibility of further purchasing before the dealers finish the tail goods, while the raw material procurement of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises in Heilongjiang Province has basically come to an end Factory prices increased, but Mengxi and other low-cost supply of goods is relatively adequate, the price rise is only a price without transaction.
Finally, it is not only urea enterprises that restrict production. Recently, the environmental protection inspection in Central China and North China has been more serious, and some downstream chemical enterprises have also been affected by certain production restrictions. Although the urea production in the surrounding markets has declined, the demand has also decreased, and the increase in the price of imported urea may affect the sales volume of urea.
In conclusion, it is expected that urea prices in Central China and East China may be increased due to the impact of urea reduction. However, at this stage, the agricultural market demand has not yet started, and the industrial market demand is relatively postponed. However, due to the reduced supply pressure of some enterprises, the price may be at a sustainable high level, but it is expected that the number of transactions at the high-end price will not be large.
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