Since the end of last week, the domestic fertilizer market is still hotly debated, among which the most noteworthy is that the urea market is warming again, and local prices are rising instead of falling. The results of India's new round of urea import bidding were announced earlier. The bid winning prices of India's East and west coasts were lower than the domestic ex factory level, and China's participation in the supply of urea was extremely limited. The seemingly negative export market was about to affect China, and the urea price reduction was the general trend. However, the tight supply chain once again became the life-saving straw of the market. After the policy-based parking in Jincheng area, some Gas head urea enterprises have also stopped production, supply suddenly cut, short-term market recovery firm.

The urea market remains high, and the residual temperature of winter storage market remains. Compared with the beginning of the start-up, the price of compound fertilizer is indeed at a high level, with an increase of more than 100 yuan / ton. Most enterprises have strong voice to support the price of winter storage, and some enterprises are still planning to rise again. The revival of urea market may bring support for the further rise of winter storage price. However, whether it can rise again or how much it will increase still depends on And other raw materials.

First, the cost of raw materials. Up to now, the cost of pure raw materials of 45% chlorine / sulfur based universal series is 1690 yuan / ton and 1985 yuan / ton respectively, which is nearly 100 yuan higher than the level in early November. Therefore, it is imperative to raise the price of compound fertilizer. However, the possibility of further increase is limited. Urea price is rising due to short-term supply shortage. The actual domestic demand is not satisfactory, and the construction will resume later If so, the risk of price reduction is also relatively large; the primary ammonium enterprises are still mainly supplied in the early stage, and the new orders are generally in general, and there is no possibility of further increase; the market of potash fertilizer is high, and consolidation in the later stage is the main factor.

Second, downstream demand. Different from other seasons, the winter storage period span is longer, and the northern region needs to reserve for nearly half a year in advance. Therefore, the risk coefficient will increase accordingly. Recently, the demand for underground tourism has been stagnant, and the grass-roots people have a strong wait-and-see mood. The first reason is that most dealers have ordered some goods in the early stage with relatively low prices, and they are not willing to accept high price replenishment. The second reason is that grain prices are high this year, farmers are reluctant to sell, and dealers' funds are slow to return. Some of them say that they expect to get credit around New Year's day The debt will be paid.

Finally, diammonium market. Since the autumn stage, the domestic market of diammonium has gradually warmed up and the price has risen to a high level. In the case of favorable export orders, domestic DAP winter storage supply is not only difficult to obtain, but also the price has increased greatly. The rise of winter storage price of compound fertilizer is promoted by the large price difference between the winter storage of compound fertilizer and the substitute diammonium. With the end of diammonium export orders of various enterprises, the export market may cool down, and the market of diammonium in the international market is relatively stable. In addition, domestic dealers have strong resistance to high price diammonium. Even if the price of diammonium continues to rise in the future, the range is expected to be extremely limited.

To sum up, the raw material cost support, compound fertilizer price high operation, although the downstream resistance psychology still exists, but in the short term, the enterprise itself will support the price.