By the end of 2020, the performance of urea market in the whole year is fair. Near the end of the year, the supply of urea market has decreased sharply. Although the demand performance is not good, the overall price performance is fair. As of the end of the week, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1800-1820 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 1840 yuan, and that of Hebei Province is 1800-1820 yuan According to the current situation, the urea price in many places is still possible to go up this month
First, supply may continue to run at low levels this month. Around the end of November, the daily output of urea in China was still around 150000 tons, while the minimum daily urea production in recent years was reduced to 125000 tons: due to limited supply of environmental protection and natural gas, as well as the elimination of some old units in some factories in Henan Province, Zhongyuan Dahua has already reached the annual urea production plan at the beginning of this month, and the recent operating rate of Henan and Sichuan provinces has been reached Even the local operating rate in Henan Province is less than 30% and that in Southwest China is less than 20%. Even after the middle of this month, the operating rate in Sichuan Province still shows signs of continuous decline. Due to the impact of environmental protection, only one factory is still in production in Jincheng area of Shanxi Province. Due to the large number of enterprises stopped production in Jizhong recently, the market supply situation suddenly changed The urea market in North China is in short supply suddenly, while the hard demand of downstream industries such as plate mills still exists. Therefore, the urea price has been raised in the near future.
Secondly, the potential demand of the market still exists, and the factory inventory is running at a low level. In recent years, there are only moderate purchases in the industrial market, and the winter storage of enterprises is in the suspension stage. However, according to the raw material inventory forecast of compound fertilizer enterprises at this stage, it can only be maintained around mid January, and the market demand remains in the later stage. Affected by the early fed orders, most factories' inventory is temporarily at a low level, and the sales pressure of enterprises is small. In addition, the urea enterprises have reduced in recent years There is no need for the factory to reduce the price in the near future.

Finally, the price of grain goes up and the price of fertilizer goes up. Affected by the global tension this year, the heat of this year's grain has gradually increased. After the fertilizer sales in the Northeast market this spring, the local market inventory carry over volume is relatively low, and even a sector of the region appears zero inventory state. Recently, the grass-roots market is reluctant to sell, and the price may continue to rise in the future. Under this background, the price of urea can present a certain high level Bit operation.

To sum up, although the recent demand performance of urea market in many places is not good, the current sales pressure of urea enterprises is small, and the urea price may show some signs of rising in this month, but the overall increase should be small.