Since November, Jincheng District of Shanxi Province entered the production limit, the daily output of urea in China has gradually declined. After December, affected by this year's natural gas limit, the daily output of urea in China has accelerated to decline. Up to now, the daily output of urea has dropped to less than 120000 tons. Due to the sharp decline in the operating rate, the price of urea in various places has also shown some signs of rising recently: the current price of urea in Shandong Province The mainstream ex factory price is 1810 yuan (ton price, the same below), the compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area receive the urea price 1830-1840 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei area 1800-1810 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan area 1800-1810 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi area 1740 yuan, the big granule 1780 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Sichuan area 1900-1960 yuan, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Heilongjiang area 1800-1810 yuan The mainstream ex factory quotation is 1920 yuan. Due to the rapid price rise and the relatively general demand of the agricultural market in the near future, the industrial market has been purchased in the early stage. At this stage, only a part of the board factories and the compound fertilizer enterprises that have not reserved urea in the early stage will take the right amount of goods. In addition, some urea traders will cash in, and the low price goods in the early stage will be sold upside down However, in the following aspects, the price of urea still shows signs of continuing to run at a high level

First of all, the inventory pressure of enterprises is small. Although the number of transactions at the high-end price of most plants is relatively small in the near future, due to the strict inspection of chemical fertilizer commercial light storage this year, the demand of most storage enterprises and large traders is relatively sufficient. Up to now, some of the storage orders of some plants still exist. Based on this, some urea plants have less inventory pressure and give priority to supply new orders with high price in the near future When the transaction is under pressure, supply the early fed orders in an appropriate amount. At present, the inventory pressure of urea plants in North China and Central Plains is relatively low, and the price of urea plants in Southwest China continues to soar to the ex factory price of more than 1900 yuan due to the shortage of raw materials. Considering the current inventory situation of urea enterprises, the initiative of urea enterprises is relatively high in the short term, and the price may be high.

Second, supply will not increase too much in the short term. Due to the cold current this winter, the supply of natural gas is relatively tight. Although some gas head enterprises are still in production at the present stage, the supply of natural gas in the later stage can not be guaranteed. However, the possibility of the gas head enterprises that have stopped production at the present stage to resume production in this year is relatively low, and it is expected that they will resume production as early as or after the middle of January at the earliest. However, the environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has intensified, such as according to the previous government regulations According to the documents, the supply of urea in Jincheng can recover more than 50%. However, according to the statistics of China fertilizer network, there are only two urea branch plants in Jincheng at the present stage, and the recovery time of other plants has not been completely clear. Based on the above situation, it is estimated that the daily actual output of urea in China will not exceed 140000 tons in a month, and the supply pressure is small, even if the market demand is persistent Weak, but the possibility of a sharp decline in prices is relatively low.

Finally, the market demand in the later stage remains. In the near future, there is only an appropriate amount of purchase in the industrial market, and the enterprises are in the suspension stage of taking goods for winter storage. However, according to the forecast of raw material inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises at the present stage, it can only maintain until around the middle of January, and the market demand still exists in the later stage. Affected by the orders from the Federal Reserve in the early stage, most of the factories' inventory is temporarily low, and the sales pressure of enterprises is small. In addition, the recent reduction of urea enterprises There is no need for the factory to reduce the price in the near future.

To sum up, although judging from the above factors, there is no need for the price of urea to decline in the near future, the fresh storage of urea this year is more than that of previous years, and the output of urea this year is higher than that of last year. Combined with the impact of higher grain prices, it is expected that after the fertilizer enters the peak sales season in spring, the supply of fresh storage may be lower than that of urea enterprises at that time, so the procurement still needs to be cautious.