The year 2020 is coming to an end. Looking at the overall urea market this year, there is less delicate tenderness and more extensive wildness. Since the beginning of the year, all kinds of unexpected things have happened constantly, and the overall price trend fluctuates greatly. We should not forget the lessons of the past and the future. Then we should sort out what accidents are reflected in the urea market this year.

The first accident: a sudden outbreak. Since January this year, the word "new crown" has become the most popular word in the whole network. At home, all kinds of prohibitions have been carried out since the end of January. Under this situation, it is inevitable for the urea industry. With the gradual attention of the epidemic situation, even from the Perspective of the fertilizer industry, it has entered February, but the market arrival volume is relatively small, the transportation has been greatly affected, and the overall price of urea has gone crazy At the stage of wild rise, the stock price of large grain urea in Heilongjiang reached 2170 yuan (ton price, the same below), which set the highest price of urea this year. From the price point of view, the epidemic situation played a positive role in the sales of urea in spring.

The second variable: India's frequent bidding. Affected by the international epidemic, the overall operating rate of domestic urea in India is lower, the demand is relatively stable, and the dependence of urea on foreign countries is rising sharply. In terms of epidemic prevention and control, transportation distance and supply quantity, India's purchasing enthusiasm for China's urea is higher than that of last year. In the middle of this year, India's bidding for three times and four times is even more astonishing Insiders, although the overall shipping is relatively tight, and for China's production at that time, the overall medium scalar is not large. However, due to India's continuous bidding, the international price is gradually rising. Supported by India's bid, the domestic urea price rebounded in the off-season in July, and lasted for a long time.

The third increase: the supply is large, but the supply pressure is small. Last year, most urea enterprises analyzed from the cost point of view, and most of them remained profitable. In addition to the elimination of some old units in previous years, some new units of some enterprises and some enterprises that had been shut down for a long time in the early stage also planned to enter production this year. According to the data monitoring of China fertilizer network, except for the last month, the daily output of urea this year was higher than that of the same period last year, but most of the plants this year It said that the overall inventory pressure was lower than that of the same period last year, mainly due to the carrying forward of inventory and the impact of this year's Fed policy.

Fourth point: large area reduction at the end of the year. As of the middle of October, most of the factories have not received the notice from the government to stop production and limit production. However, after November, the production of urea in Shanxi will be limited first. According to the documents issued by the government at that time, the amount of urea in Jincheng will be reduced by more than 2.5 million tons. After the middle of December, the local construction will be heated up. However, due to the aggravation of environmental pollution, the shutdown time in Jincheng will be extended On the one hand, although the gas head enterprises are later than the same period of last year, their efforts to limit production are higher than the same period of last year. Since the beginning of December, many gas head enterprises have entered into the phase of shutdown, and they need to resume production after January at the earliest. The overall supply reduction is relatively serious. As of the middle of December, the daily output of urea has dropped to less than 120000 tons.

To sum up, the overall supply of urea by the end of 2020 is relatively small. Although the demand of downstream market is not so good in the near future, according to the current start-up and the planned recovery time of the plant, it is expected that urea can be safely finished, and there should be no excessive decline before the recovery of urea production in most gas head enterprises.