Before the Spring Festival holiday, the fertilizer market is temporarily stable, and the overall market trading atmosphere is relatively light. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2130-2150 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2120-2130 yuan (but the industrial market is basically stagnant, and there is no receiving at present), and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2160 yuan, The mainstream price of urea in Henan is 2100-2120 yuan, that in Shanxi is 2050 yuan, that in large granule is 2080 yuan, that in Heilongjiang is 2150 yuan, and that in Xinjiang is 1700 yuan. Compared with the same period last year, the overall price of urea has increased by about 400 yuan. At present, the industry holds two views: first, the overall price of urea is relatively high, After the grass-roots market starts in the later stage, the prices will rise in the off-season and fall in the peak season. On the other hand, it is believed that the current international market price is higher, while last year's grain price is also higher, and the grass-roots purchasing power is strong. However, the potential demand of the spring market is still there, and the price is still bullish. However, the current situation, such as after the festival urea prices continue to rise need several necessary conditions.

First of all, India's bidding is on schedule, and the quantity and price need to reach a certain height. It has been mentioned many times before that the main reason for the rise of urea price before the festival is the sharp rise of international price. In addition, it is rumored that bidding will start soon in the Indian market, and the local import tariff of urea will be cancelled after April 1. Taking all the above into consideration, the domestic urea price continues to rise. However, up to now, the bidding in India has not been announced, and the domestic urea trading volume is small It seems that the price of urea is a bit empty. Under this background, even if the export traders bet on the late market and the number of ports waiting for delivery is hundreds of thousands of tons, the domestic market is still on the lookout. The market circulation links are mostly back-to-back, and there is a certain upside down. It is rumored that the bidding of urea in India is postponed to the last week of February, if the bidding is normal, and the procurement quantity is sufficient, and the price is in line with the export price Traders expect domestic urea prices to continue to rise.

Second, the supply side needs to release slowly. Since January, the domestic urea industry has been in the recovery stage. After one month's gradual recovery, the daily physical output of urea in China has reached 157000 tons. Under the background of such supply, the rising price of urea will be restrained to a certain extent. After the Spring Festival, with the addition of new production capacity and the recovery of some stopped production enterprises, the daily physical output of urea should reach 160000 tons, while the daily physical output of urea should reach 160000 tons On the one hand, the goods of commercial light storage can also be sold after the end of February. Although the chemical fertilizer market is particular about following the market, most of the recently traded goods are priced by the factory upside down. For example, in the background of daily supply of 160000 tons of urea, it is necessary to control the number of new orders.

Finally, demand should be released quickly. Due to the rapid rise of the overall price this year, the purchase volume of some downstream customers is relatively small, and the market demand remains after the Spring Festival. In addition, the agricultural market sales are about to start, and considering the topdressing link after the Qingming Festival, the overall demand remains. According to the Convention, the grass-roots market will start around the Lantern Festival, and the market demand will increase at that time, but according to the current supply Look, there are still doubts about the price rise of urea.
To sum up, the overall price of urea after the festival does not rule out the possibility of rising, but there are still some limited conditions, mainly due to the high domestic urea supply, and the commercial light storage urea will soon be on sale. It is expected that urea will fluctuate in a narrow range after the spring Festival, and it is relatively passive, waiting for the further clarification of the printing standard.