Near the end of the month, the domestic urea market continues to maintain the trend before the Spring Festival, and the local market price continues to rise, with the high-end range reaching 50 yuan / ton. Even if the operating rate of the domestic urea industry as a whole rebounds, the production enterprises also overstock a certain amount of inventory due to the Spring Festival holiday, but the urea production enterprises are not "disturbed" by this, which makes the domestic manufacturers understand the performance and trend of the urea market in spring Increased concerns. Urea seems to be in a price game, in which someone is forced out.

At present, the price of urea in various parts of China is at a high level, and some of them will rise appropriately in the stable period. However, in view of the fact that some enterprises will shift the production focus from liquid ammonia to urea during the Spring Festival, the urea inventory will increase. Therefore, in the near future, the urea enterprises will keep the two measures of raising the price and selling the inventory simultaneously. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei Province is about 2170-2200 yuan / ton, while the price of urea in Shanxi province fluctuates, and the mainstream ex factory price is about 2060 yuan / ton. With the rise of prices in various places, the receiving price of urea for compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region of Shandong province rises to 2200-2210 yuan / ton. Even if there is resistance to high prices, for the time being, the trend of urea in this game is not clear And the outcome is affected by the following factors.
First of all, the start-up of urea enterprises is on the high side, and there is little room for reduction in the long run. Since the Spring Festival, the start-up of ammonia enterprises has been reduced, and the transportation of hazardous chemicals has been limited, so most enterprises have shifted their production focus from liquid ammonia to urea, and so far, the start-up of some enterprises has not been transferred back to liquid ammonia. After the supply of natural gas and coal has eased, the start-up of urea enterprises has maintained a high load, especially the gas head urea enterprises in southwest and Inner Mongolia have resumed production According to statistics from www.cnki.com, up to now, the overall industry operation rate of urea enterprises has rebounded to about 60.97%, with a daily output of about 163000 tons, which has been significantly improved compared with the previous period. In addition, the new domestic urea production capacity has also attracted the attention of the industry, including the normal operation of a new urea plant in Jiangxi, and the production of a new urea plant in Hubei. In addition, some stopped urea enterprises will resume production at the beginning of next month According to the plan, the output of other urea enterprises will continue to increase, which are all negative for the later trend of urea. However, the price of liquid ammonia in some areas is rebounding recently. With the resumption of production of downstream ammonia enterprises, the price of liquid ammonia will continue to rebound. At that time, some enterprises will turn the production focus back to liquid ammonia, and the start-up of urea industry may have a slight downward trend.

Secondly, the demand for Industry and agriculture is expected to improve, and there are still pending signings. In the period before the Spring Festival, urea enterprises started at a low level, supporting their orders to be issued. Up to now, there are still many low price orders in the market, so it is inevitable that there will be upside down. However, with the spring market starting in succession, the agricultural rigid demand will start soon, and the industrial compound fertilizer enterprises have not yet fully recovered, but they will resume production in succession before the spring market starts In the later period, the purchase volume of urea will increase. However, most of the large agricultural materials suppliers have already reserved some urea in the early stage. At this time, the price of urea rises to a high level again, and their purchasing becomes cautious. Some of them wait and see, and some of them make up a small amount of orders. That is to say, some large traders may be forced out. On the other hand, there is a certain relationship between the high price of urea and the unclear price of urea, which is one of the factors that can be used for speculation in the domestic urea market. In addition, the international price is still high, which still has support for the domestic market.

Finally, overall, the high price of urea continues to rise, the market worries increase, and some traders are cautious in purchasing, especially the grassroots hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the price of urea. Some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises also choose to purchase some small nitrogen fertilizer, such as ammonium chloride, to replace part of urea, which means they are forced out.