After the Lantern Festival, the overall price of urea turned from prosperity to decline. During the weekend, the price of North China market showed a certain decline. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2150-2190 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2160-2170 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2150-2200 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan is 2130 yuan, and the price of urea in Shanxi is 2130 yuan The mainstream ex factory price of small granule urea is about 2080 yuan, while that of large granule urea is about 2100 yuan. Although the high-end price of some regions remains stable for the time being, the actual transaction center of the market moves down about 20 yuan. The main reason for this price decline is that the agricultural demand of Shandong, Lianghe, Jiangsu and Anhui has stopped temporarily, coupled with the low temperature, and the commercial light storage source of chemical fertilizer has begun to sell, resulting in lower demand In addition, the acceptance of high price has been reduced. In the early stage, the low price orders of some enterprises have been consumed, and the price has begun to decline. However, in the recent market, the price of urea still shows signs of rebound.

Before the analysis, in terms of the current overall supply and demand situation, under the injection of no major accident factors (such as the strong intervention in some aspects, the improvement of environmental protection level, resulting in large-scale shutdown, some large plant failures, etc.), the price of urea in the near future will mainly fall.

First, the arrival of Indian bidding. Since the beginning of 2021, the reason for the sharp rise of domestic urea price is the sharp rise of international urea price. However, some people in the industry think that the main reason for the price rise is that the Indian bidding has not been announced yet. Even if the domestic market is catching up with the international market price, there is no Chinese urea with Indian bidding, which makes some traders think that there is something missing. Since the beginning of February, Rumors of bidding in India have been constantly issued, but up to now, there is no clear news about urea bidding in India. In recent years, the first bidding in India mostly takes place in March. According to the recent international market trend, even considering the price reduction in India, it will play a certain role in supporting the current domestic urea price By then, the sharp rise in price can not be said to be certain, but it can at least stabilize the domestic urea price.

Secondly, the gradual release of industrial demand. Recently, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has been gradually released. Because the price of urea plants rose more and faster from January to February, some of the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises in the wait-and-see stage were relatively less enthusiastic in purchasing. As a result, the inventory of their own raw materials was temporarily at a relatively low level after the 15th of the first month. The recent replenishment needs relatively high support, while this year's nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, etc The mainstream fertilizer has a higher rising trend, and the demand for compound fertilizer at the grass-roots level is relatively higher. When the industrial market is fully started, the price of urea may also rise.
To sum up, even if the daily physical output of urea in China is maintained at 160000 tons, the price may rebound in the later stage. In addition to the recent gradual release of the agricultural market, it is expected that the price of urea will mainly slide down in the short term, but the overall price reduction speed is relatively slow. It is expected that the price reduction in North China market from March to April will be within 200 yuan, so it is suggested that dealers should mainly short the warehouse.