The domestic primary fertilizer market in spring has basically ended, and the high nitrogen fertilizer production in summer has come to an end. Recently, most of the market demand is renewed by local agricultural markets. Because most traders hold negative expectations for the urea market in the early stage, the operation of collecting money at a low price first and then taking delivery from enterprises is relatively more. But how can the domestic urea market be affected by inflation after May Day, Because of the low inventory of the enterprise, the price of urea plant once soared under the stimulation of demand. Even if the price of steam coal went down in the later stage, the price only fluctuated at a high level, Then another dose of "heart shot" urea bidding in India hit again, adding power to the inferior urea. This week, urea prices rose again, and urea prices in various places continued to set a new high in the past two years. Although futures market also showed a weakening trend this week, from the current price performance of various places, the price is still at a high level.

At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2300-2310 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea in Linyi is 2340-2350 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2340-2360 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan is 2300-2330 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2270-2290 yuan, and the big granule is 2280-2300 yuan, As a low price in China, the low-end ex factory price of urea in Xinjiang has also risen to 1800 yuan at the present stage, and the expected decline has not occurred. However, some branches have indicated that urea may decline after entering June. The main reasons are as follows:

First, supply and demand will gradually change. At present, the main demand for fertilizer is concentrated in the northeast, northwest and southwest markets, while the demand of industrial and agricultural markets in the Central Plains is relatively general. Recently, most of the purchases are made by traders who are short in the early stage. However, the purchase peak has passed. Even if there are transactions at this stage, the quantity is relatively small. This situation will gradually increase with the advance of time and the change of supply and demand relationship, From the current performance, the topdressing season in Northeast China will start after the middle of June, while the downstream industrial compound fertilizer enterprises do not dare to rush to purchase high price urea, and the industrial performance is relatively general; At present, the overall start-up of urea is relatively stable. Considering that the current price is relatively high, some enterprises that have stopped production still have plans to resume production in the near future. It is expected that the overall start-up of urea will remain relatively high unless there is a temporary failure of the plant in the near future, and the reduction of demand may affect the current overall price trend.

Second, the number of high-end transactions is relatively small. Although most of the urea quotations are relatively high at present, there are still low-cost orders waiting to be issued in the early stage, and the grass-roots market has limited acceptance of high prices. Some traders are still slightly hanging upside down in the factory quotation for sales at the present stage. However, when the orders waiting to be issued in the early stage of the factory are consumed and the orders waiting to be issued are insufficient, the urea price will obviously decline.

To sum up, the urea price can maintain a high level in the short term, and even the possibility of the urea price continuing to rise is not ruled out. However, there are still some doubts in the urea market after entering June. If there is no influence of external factors, it is expected that the urea price may decline at that time.