At the end of May, the international fertilizer market is booming, and the bidding of urea in India has come to an end. The bidding volume of 1.48 million tons in total looks like that. The FOB price of China is 371-376 US dollars (ton price, the same below). At the same time, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province is temporarily stable at 2320-2340 yuan, which can be different from the domestic and foreign urea, The domestic sales of diammonium is in the off-season, and most enterprises are heavily dependent on the international market. Just when India announced a new fertilizer import subsidy and China's FOB price of diammonium rose to about 540 US dollars, India's NFL company and RCF company cancelled the bidding of diammonium one after another. India does not import diammonium? What's the trend of China's diammonium price? Can domestic diammonium price be reduced?

First, Indian Importers are losing money, but there is still a demand gap. As mentioned earlier, India introduced a new diammonium import subsidy policy, which subsidized 24231 Indian rupees per ton of diammonium, or about 334.8 US dollars, an increase of 137%. However, the Indian government later asked the domestic maximum retail price of diammonium to be reduced to 24000 Indian rupees, or 331.6 US dollars. This also means that the dividend brought by the new subsidy will be offset, and the loss of Indian diammonium importers will continue. At present, the latest inventory of diammonium in India is 2.2 million tons, far lower than 4.4 million tons in the same period last year. The huge demand gap can not be made up by its domestic production capacity. Moreover, the CIF price of phosphoric acid has risen to more than US $1000, which shows how high the production cost is. India will be a super customer in the international diammonium market this year.

Secondly, there is still demand in other regions at home and abroad, and domestic diammonium supply may be tight. In addition to the demand of India mentioned above, there is also a large demand for diammonium in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Southeast Asia. Because of the outbreak of the epidemic again, all countries in the world have increased the planting area of crops, and the demand for chemical fertilizer has increased. As the first country to restart from the epidemic, the competitiveness of China's diammonium in the international market has also increased. At present, most enterprises are waiting for orders to produce until the end of June. The domestic autumn wheat fertilizer market is dominated by diammonium and high phosphate compound fertilizer. As the main fertilizer variety, diammonium has an apparent consumption of nearly 4 million tons in the domestic autumn market. Under the condition of constant overall production capacity, the domestic diammonium shortage can be predicted.

Finally, the price of raw materials is high and the production cost is high. At present, the port granular sulfur has risen to 1610 yuan, and Puguang sulfur has risen again. At present, the price of Wanzhou port and Dazhou plant has risen to 1570 yuan and 1460 yuan respectively. Affected by the rising price of pyrite, the ex factory price of smelting acid in some areas has risen to more than 600 yuan. Considering the hard demand of downstream enterprises, the sulfur price is difficult to go down in the short term. Urea prices remain high, coal prices are also high, coupled with the reduction of supply in some areas, liquid ammonia prices are high, and the factory price of liquid ammonia in Hubei is 3650-3750 yuan. Based on the current raw material price, the total cost of 64% high-end diammonium in Hubei Province is close to 3000 yuan.
To sum up, there is a large demand for diammonium in the international market. In addition, the FOB price is much higher than the domestic price. At present, Chinese enterprises mainly export, and the domestic autumn market is likely to have a relatively tight supply of high content diammonium.