Urea prices have been rising since the beginning of May. At present, the quoted price of urea in some regions has risen to more than 2700 yuan (ton price, the same below). As of this Friday, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2580 yuan, that of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2550 yuan, that of urea in Hebei is 2520-2540 yuan, that of urea in Henan is 2570 yuan, that of urea in Shanxi is 2500-2510 yuan, and that of large particles is 2500-2520 yuan. Over the weekend, the ex factory price of urea in Jiangsu has risen to about 2750 yuan, while the ex factory price of urea in Xinjiang is about to enter 2300 yuan. At present, the quotation of the factory is changing with each passing day, and the situation of stopping sales and adjusting the price twice a day also happens frequently. In recent years, the situation of urea price rising is rare. The main reasons are as follows:

On the one hand, rising prices lead to increased panic. Although the demand for high nitrogen fertilizer is relatively high in summer, the purchase of raw material urea by downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has slowed down since June. In fact, the production of high nitrogen fertilizer of most compound fertilizer enterprises has come to an end, and the purchase volume of urea is not particularly large. However, after such a sustained and high-intensity price adjustment, some compound fertilizer enterprises can not sit still, In particular, we learned from the market that this year, some complex large plants put in new plants in Northeast China. According to the usual practice in previous years, the peak purchasing season of raw materials for winter storage was mainly from July to August. However, due to the good domestic market, the maintenance in May was not carried out. It is estimated that the maintenance scale of urea enterprises may expand after July, and the procurement progress may be affected at that time, Therefore, some compound fertilizer enterprises purchase in advance, and the relationship between market supply and demand has changed; In the agricultural market, there is still a demand for topdressing in the later stage. In the early stage, some traders sell short. In order to ensure the market share in the later stage, they have started to purchase in the early stage. At present, even if there are low-cost goods, they are reluctant to sell more goods in addition to ensuring the supply of orders owed in the early stage; After the rapid price increase, some of the traders who increased the price in the later period of gambling also entered the purchasing stage. Stimulated by the demand of these three aspects, the price of urea continued to rise.

On the other hand, large output and tight supply are all facts. According to the rough statistics of China fertilizer network, the physical output of urea in May reached more than 5 million tons, with an average daily output of more than 160000 tons, which is a relatively high level in recent years. Although the daily output of urea has decreased slightly recently, it still remains at a slightly low level of 160000 tons. However, as mentioned above, since the beginning of May, the demand for urea began to release, and the demand increased suddenly, After the market experienced losses in short selling, it was reluctant to sell, and the demand began to show on a large scale. The low price supply in the market was relatively small. In order to control orders, urea enterprises continued to push up the price, which further increased the panic mentality of the downstream market. Under such a cycle, the overall quotation of urea continued to rise, and the waiting time of enterprises also continued to increase, The daily output of 160000 tons of urea is not particularly high. On the contrary, the factory has very few sources of goods available for sale, and the price rise has already felt a little "out of control".

To sum up, the price of urea has reached new highs recently and has entered the seller's market. As far as some enterprises are concerned, there is basically no pressure on sales before the middle of June, and the price is still likely to continue to rise. However, it is still too early to reserve in autumn or even winter.