As we all know, the price of urea rises again and again, rising out of the sky. Take Shandong as an example, since May 11, the ex factory quotation has increased by more than 200 yuan / ton to nearly 2400 yuan / ton at the end of May, and then since the beginning of June, the ex factory quotation has risen to the peak of 2710-2730 yuan / ton, during which several factories once stopped quoting; Since June 7, the quotation has gone up again after falling, and then fell again.

In the middle of June, summer corn is sown one after another in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui and Hunan provinces. Just after the end of demand, urea is officially on the decline. Will the price drop sharply? Roughly speaking, it won't fall sharply. Specifically, it depends on the situation of printing marks and the inventory of grassroots society.
On the one hand, domestic trade demand has not completely ended. Although Shandong and other places are in the summer corn planting season, the dealers have been careful to take the goods in the early stage, and believe that there is still a little gap in urea; The top dressing in Northeast and Northwest China is still in the market, which is just a deterrent to the high price of urea; In particular, the price of urea in spring is much higher than that of last year. In summer, the price of urea is even higher than that of last year. A few dealers or deliberately speculate on inventory, and most dealers should have very little inventory. Considering the factors such as over issuance of US dollar / inflation, it is likely that the price of urea will not fall too much.

In terms of industry, plywood factories will continue to take urea for breath. After all, as the country with the best epidemic control in the world, the export volume and domestic trade volume of plywood factories are probably higher than those of the same period last year, and the demand for urea naturally increased year on year; Although the power plant has prepared some urea for the peak power consumption in summer, in view of the rising price of urea, the urea middleman will make up urea at any time when the power plant is bidding; The autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizer enterprises should be moderately advanced. The main reason is that the urea price will rise again when the summer is over. After all, China's Urea Export has a large volume of goods. After all, the price of printing is very high, and it can be fried at any time. Next, the price of urea will fall less for a short time, or more for a long time.

On the other hand, export, especially printing and marking, has disrupted the price rising rhythm of China's urea market. Export: from January to April, China's urea export volume reached 1.342 million tons, an increase of 49% compared with 898000 tons in the same period of last year. It seems that the 400000 tons of urea is not much. However, considering that the demand for urea in spring accounts for a large proportion of the total demand of the whole year, and considering that there are more maintenance of urea enterprises in summer, the 400000 tons of Urea Export, together with several times of standard printing, are earlier than in previous years, However, the effect of speculation / real price increase is better. It seems that there are some reasons for the price increase of urea.

The first half of June is the first half of the year. This is the first half of June. It was within the expectation after the bid of 565000 tons was won on May 25. It can be said that if it was not for the early wind, the first half of June may be held at any time. It seems that the official opening and falling time of urea price will be a little earlier. There are some speculations about this time's bid printing. The time is very near, and the price will be very high, which may be more than 430 US dollars FOB China (more than 2600 US dollars from Shandong factory, and the latest Indian CIF guidance price will be more than 470 US dollars). In view of the speculation that the shipping date is July 23 / 24, the long shipping date will not greatly boost the price of urea in China, That is to say, this printing can only provide a basis for the current price decline of urea in China.

In short, the social inventory of urea in China may be very low, and the printing mark is about to be printed. However, the demand of industry and agriculture is coming to an end in summer, the daily output of urea has gradually increased, and soon reached a high level (nearly 170000 tons per day), the fluctuation of sea freight, too long shipping schedule and other factors. It is unknown how much the new printing mark can really borrow. Before the large-scale demand in autumn, the price of urea should appropriately drop, It is estimated that compared with the sharp rise in summer, the recent decline should be small.