From June 24 to July 3, affected by the shortage of coal supply, urea enterprises in Shanxi and other places limited production. In addition, on June 24, India RCF company announced that it had obtained 1814500 tons of bidding volume in its bidding, and rumored that the lowest bidding price was as high as 500-503 US dollars / ton. Before and after the reduction of production and the printing of bidding, urea enterprises stopped and waited to rise, with an increase of 40-100 yuan / ton or more since the beginning of the week, Or it seems more realistic to describe it as rising to the end.

It can be seen that there are two major concerns in the market recently. One is the reduction of urea production. For example, from June 15 to July 5, the coal mines that have resumed work and production in Hubei Province stopped all underground mining activities and carried out major overhaul of equipment and facilities. The coal mines that have not resumed work and production will not start rectification temporarily to ensure that the equipment and facilities do not operate with diseases. Similar practices are also carried out in coal mines in other regions; In addition, in response to the centennial celebration of the founding of the Communist Party of China, many urea enterprises have reduced the load slightly. For example, three urea enterprises in Shanxi have reduced the load by 20-50% since June 24. If the coal supply can not be relieved after July 5, these enterprises may reduce the load by 50%. With the approaching of July 1, other urea enterprises in northern China have or will reduce the load by 10% or more. These are the small premise of urea price increase in this round.

The second is a series of psychological and behavioral changes of urea manufacturers before and after the printing of the standard in combination with the possibility of imposing export tariffs. On June 24, before the urea procurement bidding of India RCF company, that is, last week, the relevant departments discussed the possibility of imposing 30% export tariff. At that time, the exporters either suspended the operation of gathering at the port or rushed to deliver goods to the bonded area. Correspondingly, the urea enterprises naturally reduced their prices first, and then with the approaching time of bid opening in India, these enterprises accumulated a certain amount of waiting time, The price of urea will be more reasonable if it rises again. Up to now, 100000-150000 tons of urea may have been stored in the bonded zone; In particular, on the evening of June 24, it was rumored that India's lowest bid price was as high as US $500-503 / ton to the shore, minus about US $30 / ton of sea freight, China's current offshore guidance price of small particle urea has risen sharply to US $450-470 / ton. If the rumor is true, considering the exchange rate of 6.46, the port miscellaneous price is 60-80 yuan / ton, which is about 2966 yuan / ton, at least the low end is about 2837 yuan / ton, Taking Shandong as an example, it is possible to increase 100-200 yuan / ton after deducting the freight from China's urea enterprises to corresponding ports.
Of course, the premise of these increases is that China's Urea Export will not be subject to a temporary tariff of 30% before August 11.

There is also a small possibility that India does not want to take this high price, and the difference between the price rumored every time and the final bid opening price is not big. Under the premise that both the Indian bid and the tariff are not clear, China's urea enterprises, taking advantage of the impending launch of the topdressing market in the Central Plains region, are reasonable to tentatively go up and up again. The fact that some urea enterprises stop and wait-and-see shows that everyone is very cautious, If the price rises too much, they are worried about the imposition of tariffs. India's price is so high, but if the price rises too little, they will suffer losses. Of course, we need to consider that the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, the market supervision bureau, and the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission all appeal to the state-owned urea enterprises to reduce their exports and stop quoting.

To sum up, in the short term, just need customers may purchase a small amount, non just need customers and so on can print the bid clearly (the bid validity period is up to July 2) / customs clear (may be levying customs duties on July 1) / in the first ten days of July, after all, under inflation, urea operation is too difficult.