Since the last time the standard printing became clear, the quotation of urea market in China has been interrupted again. Most enterprises have "hidden" the price. Some dealers' enthusiasm for urea purchase has been frustrated and they have turned to take the goods on demand. At the same time, large traders have also done the same. The purchase is either suspended or the price is higher than the price. However, the supply of urea plants is still tight, However, the price of urea did not fall because of this. On the contrary, under the influence of India standard and limited supply of domestic raw coal, or limited transportation, the price of urea rose to a high level. However, as of today, the transaction situation in some regions was slightly weak.

Recently, the state has carried out corresponding regulation on the nitrogen fertilizer and urea market. For example, the national development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Market Supervision recently sent a joint research team to Henan and Hebei provinces to carry out special research to understand the operation of the fertilizer futures and spot market; For example, to understand the operation of the coal market and price changes, and hold a forum to study and do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of coal and other bulk commodities; For example, priority should be given to ensuring the supply of chemical fertilizer in the domestic market, restricting exports, or recent market rumors that 30% ad valorem tariff may be temporarily imposed. Now the price of urea is stabilizing, and it is hoped that urea will gradually return to a rational state.

With the increase of factory quotation, the wholesale price of grass-roots units has gone up rapidly. For example, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is about 2740 yuan / ton, the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is about 2850 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Jiangsu is about 2880 yuan / ton, and the wholesale reference price in some markets is about 2900-2950 yuan / ton, but the transaction situation is not very ideal. With the opening of the second half of the year, the trend of urea and whether there will be policy factors have attracted much attention.

On the one hand, the start-up of urea enterprises is relatively low, and the production enterprises have no inventory, so the inventory in the downstream market is also limited. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall operation rate of urea industry is about 57.32%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. It is also because of the limited supply of raw coal that the operation of urea enterprises should not pick up significantly in the short term; In addition, the domestic price of liquid ammonia is running at a high level. If the supply side of urea is under pressure, those enterprises will shift their production focus to liquid ammonia to "preserve" urea; At present, urea enterprises do not have inventory pressure, and the downstream purchase is carried out on demand due to the risk of high price. The inventory of industry and agriculture is still small.

On the other hand, the demand of agriculture is coming to an end, and the industry is under the pressure of high price. There is still a demand for top dressing in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui markets, but after the middle of July, with the end of the demand, the high price of urea will also be under pressure, which inevitably has a downward trend; Agricultural demand is suspended, and the industry places its focus on industry. However, the price and policy of compound fertilizer enterprises in autumn are still unclear. The prices of raw materials are high, and even the supply of phosphate and potash fertilizers is relatively tight. The pressure of raw material cost is high. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, and the overall operating rate is less than 40%. The purchase of raw urea is limited, Therefore, the high price of urea may be hindered; However, the demand for power plants, plywood factories and other industries is relatively stable and considerable; Finally, the export of urea has been restricted in China recently, and the rumor of tariff is still going on.

The urea market is good, but the bad is also gradually obvious. The first is the regulation and intervention measures of national policies, or restricting exports to ensure the supply of domestic market; Second, the coal price is likely to enter the downward channel in July; Third, with the domestic fertilizer use entering the off-season, the market upside down has become more and more obvious. It is not ruled out that the market sales price is under pressure or has a downward trend.

On the whole, with the increase of bad news and the cautious purchasing of manufacturers in the industry, it is inevitable that there will be signs of weakness, and the price may be appropriately reduced due to the regulation of policies in the later stage.