Recently, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the transportation in some urea markets is limited, and the delivery of goods is even blocked in the off-season. In addition, due to the high temperature weather and tight power supply in some regions, such as Hunan and southwest, the start-up of some urea enterprises has been reduced or stopped for a short time to some extent. In this case, the prices of a few urea enterprises have increased slightly; However, from the recent supply of urea, the off-season of agricultural demand, the resistance to high prices in industry and the obstruction of export, and the regulation of domestic policies, urea tends to weaken in the later stage.

At present, the domestic urea price is mainly stable and partially falling, with a range of about 10-30 yuan / ton. For example, the price in Hebei, Shandong and Ningxia has fallen slightly. However, in some regions, such as Shandong, the price has rebounded by 10 yuan / ton due to a slight reduction in supply. At present, the ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is about 2810-2820 yuan / ton, that of mainstream urea in Shandong is about 2810 yuan / ton, and the receiving price of compound fertilizer in Linyi is slightly increased by 10 yuan / ton to 2830 yuan / ton; However, due to local transportation constraints, the downstream receiving is blocked, and the delivery progress of urea also slows down. Although there is no inventory in the downstream, it maintains cautious operation of urea. The trend of urea in the later stage also needs to pay attention to the changes of domestic supply and demand, policy regulation and transportation.

Firstly, the start-up of urea enterprises is slightly lower, but the price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, or it may be bad for urea. At present, a few urea enterprises in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and southwest China have maintenance plans for load reduction, or some enterprises have temporarily stopped due to tight power supply, and most of the other enterprises have started normally. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industrial operation rate of urea enterprises is about 49.93%, and the total daily output is only about 140200 tons. From now on, individual large urea plants in Shandong will be ready for maintenance; Partially affected by the epidemic situation and tight power supply, the start-up of some urea enterprises is affected; In addition, the price of liquid ammonia in some major domestic production areas, such as Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and Shaanxi, has fallen sharply, and the downward trend of price has not stopped, which does not rule out the possibility that some enterprises will slightly tilt their production focus to urea in order to reduce pressure in the later stage.

Secondly, the overall demand for urea is weak. In the off-season of agriculture, the industry has a strong resistance to high price urea. At present, in the off-season of fertilizer use in agriculture, only local scattered topdressing, and the delivery volume at the grass-roots level is limited. Although large agricultural materials suppliers have no urea inventory, the operational risk coefficient under high prices is high, so they only take appropriate goods or supplement orders, and there is no plan to take large orders; The start-up of industrial compound fertilizer enterprises has slowly picked up, but it is still in a low state. The sales progress of finished fertilizer after the price rise is slow, and the price of raw urea is high. Under the dual pressure, the procurement follow-up of urea is generally or the procurement is partially replaced by nitrogen fertilizer; Partially affected by environmental protection inspection, the operation of plywood plant is general, and the demand for urea should be limited; Moreover, due to the high temperature in many places in the south, the production load of some chemical enterprises has decreased slightly, which also has an impact on the demand for urea; Finally, in terms of export, under the regulation and pressure of domestic policies, the export progress and quantity are limited, so we focus on ensuring supply to the domestic market, and the domestic supply will increase after the output recovers.

Thirdly, ammonium chloride has occupied the urea market to a certain extent. Compared with urea, the price of ammonium chloride has a large low price advantage, which is more favored by some compound fertilizer enterprises, and the amount of extruded granular ammonium chloride is also increasing, which also replaces the use of some urea.

On the whole, the domestic urea supply is temporarily limited, but from the maintenance plan of various production enterprises, the commencement will be increased after mid August, while the overall domestic demand is weak, the export is limited, and the resistance to high prices in the downstream is becoming stronger. It is expected that in the near future, in addition to the slight upward exploration of prices due to the reduction of local supply, the market in many places should weaken or fall.