Recently, the overall support of urea prices in many places is insufficient, and some domestic market prices have declined to some extent. Although the prices in some regions have occasionally increased in recent two days, it is difficult to "rise" alone, which can not have a significant impact on the market. Now the quotation of the main urea outflow plants in Shandong is 2690 yuan (ton price, the same below), The receiving price of urea from compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 2680-2690 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2760 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2660-2690 yuan; The mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2650 yuan, and that of large particles is 2600-2630 yuan. However, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Inner Mongolia has dropped to a slightly higher level of 2500 yuan. The price in Xinjiang has also rapidly dropped to the level of land sales of about 2400 yuan and export of 2200 yuan. Due to the remaining demand for fertilizer in autumn in some regions, some agricultural traders in the downstream are paying more and more attention to urea, From the current overall market performance, the price of urea still tends to decline further in the later stage, mainly in the following aspects:

First, the domestic market supply will gradually increase. Due to the early rainstorm and the maintenance plan of some plant units, the overall start-up of urea is in a slow upward trend recently. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the overall daily supply of urea has recovered to the level of more than 150000 tons. The drainage pipelines in Jincheng area, Shanxi Province will be repaired before and after the 15th of this month, and the plants in Tianze, Lanhua, Jinfeng and other branch plants are gradually warming up, Some large factories in Shandong have also resumed production. Enterprises with planned maintenance in the early stage have also resumed normal production in the near future. However, the weak and stable market maintained by factories in the early stage relying on reduction has been broken, and there is a risk of price decline.

Secondly, the market demand performance is not good. Recently, with the end of market demand in Xinjiang, the local urea supply has not been reduced, the demand can not be supported, the cost is relatively low, and the local factory has no maintenance plan. In order to alleviate the supply pressure of the local market, the demand quantity of markets outside Xinjiang will increase and the price level will be suppressed; However, the recent demand in the northern market is poor. Some downstream traders have started short selling, and the price has a certain upside down. The recent demand in Jiangsu and Anhui is relatively general. Due to the temporary shutdown of some local factories, the price is weak and stable. However, with the influx of low-cost goods, the price may not last long, and the market wait-and-see mood is high, The price may continue to decline.

Finally, the uncertainty of Indian bidding still exists. India's urea bidding has not been announced recently, and the international market price is relatively weak. The impact of India's last bidding has gradually receded, and the domestic policy orientation does not encourage exports very much. According to the current international situation, even if India's recent bidding, the overall price will be weaker than that in the early stage, and there is no new bidding in the Indian market at this stage, The domestic market is still light. It is expected that under the pull of no printing standard in the short term, it will be difficult for the domestic urea price to rise significantly.

To sum up, the recent domestic downstream is due to less rigid demand on the one hand and some resistance to high price urea on the other hand. Recently, the overall operating rate of urea is on the rise. At present, the urea market is still dominated by bad, and it is expected that the price of urea will continue to decline in the near future.