The "price reduction bureau" of urea has not ended yet, but it has changed from a large decline to a small decline, or the quotation of a few enterprises has tentatively increased after stabilizing. From the quotation situation of each plant, urea seems to be stabilizing, but from the progress of supply and demand and the mentality of downstream, urea still has an appropriate downward trend; At present, most of the industry say that the delivery progress of urea is still poor, and the long-awaited printing standard has not been announced, and its support may be limited.
Compared with the previous "top" price of urea, the current urea price is low. For example, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi has decreased to about 2535 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong has decreased to about 2580-2650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Northeast has decreased to about 2540-2600 yuan / ton; There is a lack of support in agriculture, and the price in industry has also dropped to a low level. For example, the arrival price of industrial urea in Central China and southwest China is only 2600 yuan / ton, which is slightly higher. After a continuous decline of about 100-200 yuan / ton, the expectations held by the industry are more cautious. Of course, we should pay attention to the progress of supply, demand and standard printing in the later stage.

The start-up of urea has increased steadily, and a new unit will be ready to be put into operation in the near future. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industrial operating rate of urea is about 55.36%, and the total daily output is about 155400 tons; The new urea unit of a large plant in Anhui is tentatively planned to be ignited on the 23rd, and the new unit of a plant in Shandong is also planned to be put into operation in the later stage; In addition, the current market of liquid ammonia is depressed, the price is generally significantly lower, and there is still some room for decline. The price in some regions has fallen below 4000 yuan / ton, and a few enterprises have slightly shifted their production focus to urea. It does not rule out that in the later stage or some enterprises choose to relatively produce more urea, so as to reduce the sales pressure of liquid ammonia.

In the off-season of domestic industrial and agricultural demand, it is difficult to support the follow-up degree in the short term. In agriculture, we continue to wait and see the market. Even if there is scattered fertilizer use in some parts, it is difficult to "transfer thousands of kilograms in four or two". Small and medium-sized traders remain cautious and wait-and-see, and the replenishment volume of the final order is too small; The start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises is low, and their own prices are forced to decline due to the sharp drop in the price of nitrogen and potassium raw fertilizer, but the sales progress slows down and the production enthusiasm is reduced; Large traders are also more bearish on urea, so the purchase plan is either shelved or only a small amount is purchased with use; Looking at the Indian bid that has not yet landed, it is reported that India may have not issued a new bidding due to financial problems. However, the industry is still expected to announce it within this month, but from the perspective of domestic policy, the actual support for the current market may be limited.

Look at the recent price of ammonium chloride, a small nitrogen fertilizer. Due to the decline of urea price, some downstream fertilizer enterprises tend to focus on urea, and the weakening of ammonium chloride market also affects the delivery progress of urea to a certain extent.
However, the current urea market is also good. First, the support of raw material cost and second, the expectation of printing standard, which makes it possible to stop the decline and stabilize the trend of urea in the later stage.

Finally, on the whole, the cost and variable printing standards seem to support the stabilization of urea for the high price urea; At present, there are many negative aspects, such as oversupply, light demand and downstream mentality; It is expected that there is still room for stable and appropriate small decline in urea prices in the near future.