Although the quotation in Shandong market rebounded slightly this week, the trading volume of new orders in the downstream is relatively general. Enterprises only rely on low-cost orders to be issued in the early stage to maintain the weak operation of the price. Even if the price in the surrounding market has occasionally increased, the embarrassment of less transactions after the price increase has also been copied under the same delivery as that in Shandong. Now the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2580 yuan (ton price, the same below), The receiving price of urea from compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2630-2640 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2620-2640 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan is 2580-2600 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2525 yuan, and the price of large particles is 2525-2540 yuan. However, the price decline in Xinjiang has accelerated. It is reported that the local ex factory price has fallen to 2300 yuan, The export price has fallen to less than 2200 yuan, and the price of urea may continue to decline in the near future. Your main reasons are as follows:

First, the delay in printing makes the expectation gradually lower. Since the beginning of this month, the market has been rumored that the Indian bidding will be launched, and there is still no news of Indian bidding until late August. Even if there is still news of Indian bidding, the international guidance price is relatively lower. Calculated according to the current China offshore guidance price of 425 US dollars, the ex factory price in Shandong is slightly lower than 2600 yuan, which is basically the same as the local price, In addition, the recent supply and price stability of relevant departments has dampened the export enthusiasm to a certain extent, and the international urea is weakening. Even if the bid opening in India recently, it is expected that the support price for the domestic market may be relatively limited.
Secondly, the market demand is general and the support is weak. The demand in the agricultural market has basically ended. Even if there is a certain demand in the market at the beginning of September, the overall quantity is relatively small. In addition, there are still low-cost goods in the market, and the transaction price of new orders of the factory will still be affected; In the industrial market, the performance is not good. Although the raw material inventory of some compound fertilizer enterprises is temporarily low, they either purchase some relatively low-cost goods in the early stage, or wait and see with money temporarily, waiting for the further decline of the market. On the whole, they are not optimistic about the current price, waiting for the further decline of the raw material price, and the winter reserve fertilizer is mainly wait and see, In addition to some hard demand procurement, many traders remain on the sidelines for the time being. It is not difficult to see from the upside down of the current market that the industry still maintains a certain pessimistic mood about urea in the later stage.

Finally, the supply pressure of urea remains. From June to July, some factories were overhauled successively, and the daily output of urea decreased, resulting in tight market supply in the early stage. Recently, with the gradual resumption of production in the early stage of plant overhaul, the daily output increased and the supply was relatively loose, but there was no obvious increase in demand, and the price also fell. According to the recent market feedback, although some large factories have limited production, the urea start-up in multi landlord production areas remains at a relatively high level, which can be alleviated by export in the early stage, but the recent export performance is poor, the domestic demand is limited, the inventory of some factories has increased, and the enterprise sales are relatively passive.
In conclusion, the supply of urea market has been running at a relatively high level recently, the demand performance is poor, and the bearish mentality in the downstream is relatively high. It is expected that the urea price may continue to decline in the later stage.