At the end of August, the price of urea rebounded. Since last Friday, the price of urea in various places has shown some signs of rising. The price of urea in Danzhou in some regions has increased by more than 100 yuan (ton price, the same below). Now the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2480-2550 yuan, the receiving price of urea by fuhefei enterprises in Linyi is 2560 yuan, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2520-2540 yuan, The mainstream urea factory quotation in Henan is 2490-2500 yuan, the mainstream urea factory quotation in Shanxi is 2480-2490 yuan, and the large particle factory quotation in Northeast China also rebounded slightly. The mainstream urea factory quotation in Heilongjiang is 2350 yuan and that in Liaoning is about 2530 yuan. After the quotation of individual large factories in Northeast China was significantly reduced by 200 yuan in the early stage, the market intention orders suddenly increased, Although there are no large number of transactions of low-cost sources, some industries believe that the price of urea has bottomed out and the purchase intention has increased significantly compared with the previous period. They plan to enter the site for purchase one after another. However, according to the comprehensive analysis of this price increase, the risk of urea price decline is still large.

First, briefly analyze the factors of this urea price increase:

First, a large number of relatively low-cost supply transactions. According to the analysis of the price trend of urea in the past month, August was a month of continuous price reduction of urea. As of last Wednesday and Thursday, the current urea market was still sold upside down by traders. However, in order to alleviate the supply pressure, the price of some factories had to decline continuously. When the price reached the bottom, traders took a large number of goods, and the pressure on factory inventory was relieved to a certain extent, It is reported that the orders to be issued by most factories can last for 7-10 days, that is to say, even if there is no transaction this week, the factories basically have no sales pressure. Based on this, the price of urea began to rise, and traders in the surrounding markets in Shandong frequently purchased, so the tentative price rise of urea was also confirmed.

Second, the number of orders waiting to be issued by factories in Hong Kong has increased. The overall performance of the domestic industrial and agricultural market in recent years is relatively general. Even in areas where there is demand, the purchase quantity is relatively small. Because the latest shipping date of the Indian standard has arrived, the number of port stocks has decreased slightly. One and a half months have passed since India announced the bidding last time. The industry has some optimistic expectations about the demand for urea in India and believes that bidding can be held in the near future, In addition, the quantity of port stock is relatively low, the factory's enthusiasm for port gathering has increased, and the inventory pressure has been further alleviated.

Third, some urea plants in the north are under maintenance. As the overall price of urea this year is relatively high, mostly at the historical high-end level, the maintenance plan of some factories has been postponed from the early stage. Recently, some factories in the north have entered the maintenance state one after another. It is expected that the daily output of urea will decline by about 10000 tons. Through the superposition of positive factors in the early stage, the positive factors of urea will deepen. Therefore, the price increase of urea this time, The cumulative increase in three days can reach the level of about 100 yuan.

We have to admit that the domestic urea price can remain relatively high even without Indian standard in the near future. If Indian urea bidding is carried out as expected in the industry, the urea price may still be further raised; However, after entering the middle and late September, if India still does not conduct urea bidding, and then the domestic urea output begins to recover gradually, coupled with the relatively poor performance of domestic market demand, there are still some risks in the urea price; For example, in order to avoid the shortage of urea supply in the later stage, some compound fertilizer enterprises can take appropriate goods at the moment. If they hold them for trade for a long time, the risk is still relatively high.