The main tone of urea is that the price is high. The market has the mood of resisting high prices, but it should not fall. Recently, the price has risen and fallen, and there are different reasons for the rise and fall. Some parts of Southwest China, Henan and Anhui have been slightly explored. The demand in North China and East China is general. In the off-season of agriculture, the downstream wholesale price will inevitably fall, the industrial commencement is limited, the delivery of urea slows down, and the price tends to stabilize due to the reduction of supply. However, due to the high risk of taking goods, the fertilizer preparation enthusiasm of large agricultural investors is not high; At the same time, there is no exact information about the printing standard. Manufacturers hope to "take the domestic urea price to a higher level" again with the help of the printing standard. However, from the perspective of domestic policy situation, first, the high urea price will have a negative mood and impact on the demand of the domestic market and crack down on the planting polarity of the terminal. Second, from the perspective of the policy of limiting the export quantity, the urea price should not rise too high.

At present, the daily output of urea has dropped to a low level, but the demand is also limited, and the price fluctuates slightly. It is understood that the mainstream urea factory quotation in Hebei is about 2570-2590 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 2530-2550 yuan / ton, that in Inner Mongolia is about 2380-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is as high as 2580 yuan / ton. At present, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream has increased, but the attention to printing standards continues to heat up.

The start-up of urea enterprises is low in the short term and will pick up in the latter ten days. Due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, a few urea enterprises in many regions in China, such as Shandong, Jiangsu and Hubei, have limited or stopped production. In addition, individual urea enterprises in Shandong have stopped production of units pending the commissioning or transformation and upgrading of new units. According to the statistics of China Chemical fertilizer network, up to now, the operating rate of the whole industry of urea enterprises is only 48.42%, and the total daily output is only 136000 tons, which is a rare low load level; However, the newly put into operation unit of a plant in Shandong may recover in the near future, and the new urea unit of a plant in Anhui will also recover smoothly in the later stage; Moreover, the local environmental protection inspection will end on the 26th-28th, and the commencement of some urea enterprises should be improved; In addition, due to the approaching of the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, in order to reduce the shipping pressure and possible inventory pressure of liquid ammonia, enterprises should mainly reduce inventory in advance, and from the price of urea and liquid ammonia, the advantages of more urea or liquid ammonia can be seen. Therefore, it is not excluded that some enterprises can appropriately increase the output of urea and reduce the shipment of liquid ammonia before and after the festival.

The demand is tepid. If traders operate at this time, the risk is too high, the resistance to high prices and the feeling of fat preparation are not high. In the off-season of the agricultural demand market, the grass-roots market resists high price urea, and some agricultural fertilizers such as Anhui and Henan maintain the pick-up rhythm of pick-up with use, and some markets still have early sources of goods to be sold, and the progress of new orders is poor; Large and medium-sized traders do not have a high sentiment of light storage. First, even in the industry's cognition, the price of urea is difficult to fall back to the same period in previous years from the perspective of cost and economic background. Although it will not be too low, from the current price, the price is absolutely high and the risk is high, so it is mostly expected at present. Second, after all, the supply of urea is sufficient, so the start-up time of winter storage will not be too early, There is even a great possibility of delay, and the downstream delivery progress is relatively slow or on demand; In terms of industry, the price of compound fertilizer has fallen, and the sales progress is slow. In addition, affected by environmental protection inspection, the start-up of some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises is still low, and the procurement progress of raw fertilizer has slowed down.
The printing of the standard has not been issued and has been delayed frequently, and the rising expectations in the domestic market have been exhausted one after another. At present, manufacturers are most concerned about the progress of standard printing. If the standard printing is released in the near future, the urea price should stop falling and stabilize, and even have the opportunity to push up. Otherwise, there should be some room for price reduction; Judging from the recent regulation degree and orientation of China's domestic urea export, whether the printing standard is good or bad is still a variable. We should not expect too much, let alone hype the rise of domestic prices.

Finally, on the whole, although the supply of urea is decreasing, the demand is also decreasing, which is weak as a whole. There are uncertain factors in the printing of standards, but the low supply will also form a certain support for the price in the short term.