At the end of August and the beginning of September, the domestic urea market was favorable to the printing standard in the later stage of gambling, and the domestic urea price ushered in a wave of non demand increase. After the ups and downs, the printing standard did not carry out bidding as expected. In the week before the Mid Autumn Festival, the weekly increase of urea in some regions was too high, However, it is surprising that up to now, there is no clear news about the urea bidding in India, which once broke the cautious expectation of the downstream market. Now the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2610-2620 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2690 yuan, and the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei is 2620-2670 yuan, The mainstream factory price of urea in Henan is 2630-2640 yuan, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2540 yuan, the mainstream factory price of large particles is 2520-2540 yuan, and the mainstream factory price of Mengxi factory is 2380-2400 yuan. Due to the relatively low start-up and operation in the local area, and the execution of orders to be issued in the early stage has not been completed, many orders have been suspended, so on the premise that the printing standard has not been issued, The domestic urea price is still rising in the off-season, mainly in the following aspects:
First, as a top priority, enterprises reduce production. In the first ten days of this month, most of the plant maintenance plans of some factories began to start this month, and the resumption time of most factories was before and after September 15. However, under the influence of environmental protection and energy consumption control, the daily physical output of domestic urea did not increase significantly after September 15, but the operating rate continued to decline, during which the low-end daily output fell to a slightly higher level of 130000 tons, It belongs to the lowest output so far this year. Such a low output disrupts the waiting downstream market. Even if it is not the peak of winter storage raw material procurement at this stage, such a low output will also affect the annual procurement plan of some compound fertilizers. Therefore, in order to avoid the embarrassing situation of focusing on goods in the later stage, The mentality of the downstream market has changed from wait-and-see to active attack; On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, some coal enterprises have been shut down, and the coal price has been raised repeatedly. Even if the relevant departments have conducted many interviews, the effect is not significant. Few factories take the initiative to reduce prices and collect orders based on cost pressure.

Second, the printed label lengthens the cavity, and the domestic heart is not flustered. Recently, the international situation has been somewhat volatile. It is reported that Europe said that there is a local production reduction expectation, while India has a demand gap of 5 million tons in fiscal year 2021-2022, and the local fertilizer demand time has not changed. Under this environment, whether China's Urea Export will largely affect the import volume of the Indian market. Some industries said that if India starts bidding in August, There may be a certain right to speak, but now the domestic urea production has plummeted, and the Indian demand remains unchanged. The later it is delayed, it will be more unfavorable to India's procurement. For example, India wants to get enough urea, or it will be higher than the procurement frequency in the second half of last year, and it will lose a certain initiative in price. According to the current situation in China, Before an appropriate amount of urea is supplied to China, relevant departments will continue to restrain the export of urea, and it is inevitable that the price will rise.

In conclusion, the urea price has been running at a high level recently, and the market panic has intensified. It is expected that there is no possibility of obvious decline in the urea price in the short term. However, the urea market is volatile this year. If it is held for a long time, it should avoid a large number of purchases.