On the eve of the national day, the overall urea price is running at a high level, and most factories are basically full of orders to be issued during the national day. Supported by this, the price of most factories has not fallen too much on the eve of the festival. In addition, the bidding publicity of Indian urea is imminent, and the domestic quotation is high. At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong has risen to 2800-2820 yuan (ton price, the same below), The receiving price of urea from compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 2820-2840 yuan, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei area rises to 2820-2850 yuan, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Henan area rises to 2740-2760 yuan, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shanxi area rises to 2680-2695 yuan, large particles 2680-2685 yuan, and even the urea price in Heilongjiang area rises again, The mainstream ex factory quotation of 2950 yuan has set a new record in China in recent years. Recently, factors such as power restriction and dual control of energy consumption are not only hot words in the chemical fertilizer circle, but now they have become a hot word for the whole people. Some traders have increased their panic mentality. In addition, in Northeast China and other places with low social inventory, some branches believe that there is an embarrassing situation of "unable to catch the goods" in the later stage, and they have entered one after another. Recently, Jincheng, Shanxi Province, has stopped production over the years due to environmental protection problems The production restriction policy came a little earlier than last year, and the supply of domestic urea market decreased again. Some industries believe that there is a possibility of high price operation in the later stage, but the following points still need to be paid attention to:
First, the policy orientation and specific implementation of relevant departments. Recently, the fundamentals of urea supply are relatively strong. Due to the higher overall cost and relatively tight supply, there is a certain basis for rise. However, recently, relevant departments have proposed to ensure supply and stable price, and some corresponding restrictions have been added on export. The export related legal inspection is also planned to start in early November; Recently, the coal price is also being straightened out gradually, but some downstream markets have some doubts about whether the relevant regulation can be implemented. If the export quantity can be restrained smoothly and the rise of coal price can be controlled, the urea price may decline in the later stage.

Secondly, whether the domestic supply can be guaranteed. Recently, in addition to some enterprises whose units are overhauled according to the plan, some factories have also entered the shutdown stage due to power restriction and dual control of energy consumption. In addition to the recent production restriction in the region, the overall start-up of urea has entered the channel of slight reduction, which is lower than the level in the same period last year. In order to control the notice, the government has slightly reduced the overall domestic production capacity this year, Whether the normal supply can be restored in the later stage is still uncertain.

Finally, the promotion of export market. Due to the effective control of the domestic epidemic, China, which can stably export products internationally, is in the forefront. So far, the international news of India speculates that the demand gap is still about 5 million tons, and the international price also rises accordingly. After that, it continues to be strong, and the price may rise.
In conclusion, the recent urea price shows signs of high operation, and there is also some panic in the downstream market. However, from the current overall market performance, there is still a possibility of large fluctuation in the later stage.