As we all know, the price situation frequently mentioned in the urea market in the past two years is similar to that in 2008, but it seems that the price has been rising sharply. Everyone is concerned about whether the trend in 2021 and 2008 will be similar. It has soared for so long. How long can this surge continue and when will it plummet?

First of all, looking at exports, prices rise again and again, far exceeding expectations, and the international demand for urea is also very large. 2021 and 2008 are the products of changes in the global economic environment. They are also inflation. The difference is that 2020-2021 is caused by the epidemic, such as low global construction, excessive currency and sharp rise in the price of bulk raw materials. The 2008 economic crisis was caused by the bankruptcy of subprime mortgage institutions, forced closure of investment funds and severe shocks in the stock market. It began to sweep the world in August 2007.
As one of the most basic and important fertilizers, urea bears the brunt. Since 2021, the international fertilizer market has continued to rise at a high level. As long as China can produce and export, it will certainly buy it internationally. For example, India has only bought more than 700000 tons of urea at the ultra-high CIF price of US $665.6-714/t on the East and west coast, There is still a big gap from the gap of more than 5 million tons before the end of the year. It can only be said that if the global epidemic can not be effectively controlled and inflation is still in the short term, the urea price may rise again at a high level, which is difficult to fall. It depends on the extent of China's prevention of exports.

In order to reduce exports, China adjusted export tariffs five times in 2008. Four export tariffs were issued before April 17. Urea prices cooled in mid June and then plummeted. The legal inspection of fertilizer import and export in 2021 will be implemented from November 1. Before that, it seems that China has won the bid of nearly 600000 tons of urea in the Indian standard. Whether it can export on schedule is the top priority in the industry.

Secondly, look at domestic industrial and agricultural demand. The mentality of buyers in 2021 is similar to that in 2008. Prices rise again and again. They are worried about possible sharp decline at any time. The demand of industrial and agricultural buyers can only be said to be more and more flat. In agriculture, the social inventory of urea is low, and there is basically no large amount of goods in less than the season. Industrial buyers also receive orders first and then go to get urea. With the passage of time, under the pressure of policy regulation and raw material prices, the export orders of China's industrial plywood will be less and less, and the demand for urea will be more and more depressed; Under environmental protection, the demand for urea in industrial power plants should not change much. Of course, under multi-level switching and power restriction, the demand for urea may decrease slightly; The price of urea is too high, seek alternatives such as ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate, and the purchase of urea by industrial compound fertilizer plants will also be slightly reduced. Domestic industrial and agricultural demand should be slightly reduced, and the reduction of agricultural demand will not be too large. On the premise of ensuring food security, the state will certainly find ways to appropriately reduce the cost of farming before farming.

Thirdly, in terms of supply, it seems that the priority can only be given to ensuring the amount of urea for agriculture, and others are lower. In 2008, the coal price soared first and then plummeted. In 2021, the coal price is still in the stage of soaring, at least at a high level. In early 2008, the southern snow disaster and the Wenchuan earthquake in May, and then in order to ensure the power consumption for the Beijing Olympic Games, urea manufacturers around the country were also seriously troubled by power rationing. By 2021, urea manufacturers will be at full capacity in the first half of the year, and the output is slightly higher than that of the same period last year. In the second half of the year, there is a lack of coal and gas, high coal price and high gas price, civil protection, environmental protection pressure, dual control of energy consumption, carbon emission inspection, etc. the urea output is relatively low, with a daily output of less than 130000 tons at one time and 150000 tons at present. It is expected that the urea output from November to December will be much lower than that of the same period last year.

To sum up, under inflation, in order to ensure the long-term development of all walks of life and avoid the outflow of low-cost resources such as coal, China's urea plants should properly control the output in 2021 and even 2021, and buyers are expected to reduce their operations. If foreign prices remain high, domestic prices will also be affected, and prices will be difficult to decline significantly. We only hope that legal inspection or other policies can effectively reduce export volume, From September to April next year, the national light energy storage will be carried out smoothly, which can ensure fertilizer security and food security to the greatest extent.