Since the launch of the autumn market, the price trend of compound fertilizer has mainly increased. During this period, it has experienced several shocks. So far, the overall price has reached a high level. According to zhongfei.com, the mainstream ex factory quotation of 45% chlorine based general-purpose compound fertilizer in some areas is 2900-3000 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of about 1100 yuan over the same period last year. Recently, the price of urea has increased significantly, and the raw material cost of compound fertilizer has increased again. Although there are reasons for the price increase of compound fertilizer, some enterprises mainly digest inventory, only cancel the preferential policies in the early stage, and have limited intention to continue to increase.

The autumn market is over, and the winter storage is not clear. Up to now, the winter storage market of compound fertilizer has mostly accrued interest and received in advance. Only a few enterprises have tentatively introduced the winter storage price, and the mainstream market is still brewing. Compared with previous years, the winter storage market of compound fertilizer this year may be more difficult. First, the cost of raw materials is too high and the price of compound fertilizer is difficult to determine; Second, the enthusiasm of downstream is not high, and the advance collection situation may not be ideal. Facing the influence of many uncertain factors, compound fertilizer enterprises have to delay starting the winter storage market.

First, can raw material prices remain high? Recently, the domestic urea market has risen, the phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer market has basically remained stable, supporting the high price of compound fertilizer. However, once the raw material price falls, it is difficult to maintain the compound fertilizer market. Due to the influence of Indian standard and international market, the domestic urea price rises. If the export market is limited and the domestic favorable factors are insufficient, the possibility of subsequent urea price decline can not be ignored; The phosphate fertilizer market is stable, and the momentum to continue to rise is slightly insufficient. After the end of the autumn market, the demand for phosphate fertilizer will gradually decrease, which also faces the risk of weakness. Therefore, there is an expectation of fluctuation in the raw material market, and it is difficult to determine the winter storage market of compound fertilizer.

Secondly, can downstream demand improve? It is noteworthy that the overall market price of chemical fertilizer this year is at a high level, and the downstream has not been well accepted, especially the demand for compound fertilizer. It has not been warm since spring. After the first round of advance collection, the replenishment market is often very short. First, the downstream wholesale and retail prices are low, the "upside down" phenomenon is serious, and the dealers' inventory digestion is slow; The second reason is that the purchasing power of the downstream is weakened. Affected by the natural weather, grain production in some areas is reduced, and the price level is not high, resulting in the weakening of farmers' enthusiasm for preparing for farming. Connecting with autumn, the winter storage market is imminent, and the downstream demand will become the key to promote.

Finally, when will the winter storage market be clear? Due to the high price of raw materials and easy changes in the future market, compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious about the start of winter storage market. Generally speaking, after October, the winter storage of compound fertilizer in some areas should be started one after another. With the beginning of enterprise pre harvest, the winter storage market will gradually become clear. However, it may be delayed this year. It is reported that the phosphorus and compound fertilizer conference will be held in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province at the end of this month. As an important time node for the large-scale start of the winter storage market, it is expected that after the conference, the winter storage market of compound fertilizer will be clearer and the downstream preparation enthusiasm may be appropriately improved. Of course, at that time, we should pay more attention to the fluctuation of raw materials.

In conclusion, it is difficult to introduce the winter storage price of compound fertilizer. Combined with the raw material cost at this stage, its price may be at a relatively high level. As for the market in the sales season next year, we still need to be cautious.