After bidding in India, the price of urea has been rising continuously. Although it has dropped slightly recently, the price is still the ceiling of chemical fertilizer. As of Friday, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 3050-3100 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receiving price in Linyi is around 3030 yuan. Of course, there are higher prices for urea in other regions, However, the industry believes that since October 15, before and after the formal implementation of the legal inspection policy for the import and export of chemical fertilizer, the price of urea should start to go down, but the degree of decline is not clear for the time being. Urea enterprises have accumulated a certain inventory, but the prices of raw materials such as coal and natural gas are high, the cost of urea is still rising, and it is difficult to have a significant decline in the short term. Therefore, although the price of urea is expected to decline, it seems that we should pay attention to the trend of upstream raw materials. In the face of the sharp rise of urea price in the recent stage, the purchasing enthusiasm of compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, but they will replenish appropriately to ensure the normal production of the enterprise.

The situation of compound fertilizer itself is not ideal. The autumn market has entered the final stage, and the residual demand in the downstream is limited. Most compound fertilizer enterprises in the two lakes region are actively digesting the inventory. Most of the factory quotations of 45% sulfur based general compound fertilizer are about 3150-3300 yuan. Recently, the market price of chemical fertilizer fluctuates frequently, and the price is still high. It is difficult to finalize the price policy of enterprise winter storage, and most enterprises collect interest, It is expected that the winter storage policy may become clearer after the phosphorus and compound fertilizer meeting at the end of this month. Although the attention to the raw material nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium is high, there is little purchase intention, which may be stimulated by the market in the short term. However, the intention of large-scale purchase should not be high. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is still low, and the raw material consumption speed is slow. In addition, at the moment when the national policies affect the fertilizer market, the wait-and-see mood is still strong, and the purchase is more cautious.

The attitude of compound fertilizer towards monoammonium is still relatively cold. After the eleventh Festival, some monoammonium enterprises issued new quotations, which is slightly lower than that before the festival. At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of 55% powdered monoammonium in Southwest China is 3400-3500 yuan, and the transaction discount is about 50 yuan. Some enterprises in Hubei have not made quotations, and some transaction prices have a certain decline. For example, the ex factory price of low-end spot exchange of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is 3270-3280 yuan. Although the overall operating rate of Monoammonium is only around 40%, and the cost support of Monoammonium raw materials is still strong, the demand for monoammonium is not ideal, and the monoammonium stored in the early stage of compound fertilizer enterprises can still maintain production. In particular, the inventory of Monoammonium in some large factories in Northeast China is sufficient, and the new purchase intention is weak. In addition, the recent national policies may make the fertilizer market volatile, Therefore, compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious in the purchase of Monoammonium, mostly low-cost small orders.

Before and after the 11th National Day, the imported potassium chloride stabilized first and then increased by 50-100 yuan. The supply of 62% white potassium in the port was relatively tight, so the price increased slightly, while the domestic potassium was regulated and decreased first, but the supply was limited, and the cost performance quickly became tight. Near the weekend, the market price also rose with the trend of stopping and reluctant to sell imported potassium. Seeing the soaring trend of urea and other fertilizers, compound fertilizer enterprises have a wave of centralized but small procurement of potassium chloride. In addition, potassium chloride is mainly bullish, so the bullish mood stimulates the release of demand in advance. However, recently, the fertilizer species have been turbulent, and the procurement of potassium chloride by compound fertilizer enterprises should slow down to a certain extent.

In conclusion, under the guidance of national policies, the confidence of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises in the raw material market has weakened, and the raw material procurement will still be cautious until the market is completely clear.